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Nick Clegg has got a difficult political game of chess to play, but he can go for checkmate if he wishes
Nick Clegg has a very difficult political game of chess to play, but he can go for checkmate if he wishes.
He is indeed much more popular in the country than members of Labour would like to admit. A recent YouGov survey found that just 20 per cent of people say Ed Miliband is performing well as Labour leader, while 21 per cent think the same of Nick Clegg as leader of the Liberal Democrats, despite his party’s unpopularity.
Tim Montgomerie has produced an article in the popular grassroots blog ‘Conservative Home’, warning David Cameron that it has been a mistake to put the NHS at the centre of the political debate. Montgomerie has indeed used the term ‘potentially fatal’ in describing the potential impact of the Bill on the future electoral chances of the Conservative Party in 2015.
The poll ratings of the Liberal Democrats have been consistently poor recently. In June 2011, an ICM poll reported that the Liberal Democrats have plummeted in the public’s opinion suffering a 14-year low with a score of 12 per cent.
Nick Clegg has been important in enabling important amendments to the proposed Bill. For example, in May 2011, he opposed to the surprise of many the competition regulator. He also publicly criticised David Cameron for declaring his love for the NHS while taking advice from people talking up the potential for private profits.
Nick Clegg has been remarkably loyal to the Coalition, having pledged an ‘united coalition’ in that famous rose garden scene on 12 May 2010, vowing to provide ‘strong and stable leadership’. Clegg has repeatedly emphasised the function of the Coalition as acting ‘in the national interest’.
However, many interested parties have now united instead against the NHS Health and Social Care Bill, including the Royal College of GPs, Faculty of Public Health, British Medical Association, Royal College of Nursing and Royal College of Midwives, which all oppose the bill outright.
Interestingly, Tim Farron MP, seen as a critical figure within the Liberal Democrats, has voiced his concerns, stating clearly this was not a Bill that the Liberal Democrats would have introduced if they had been in power on their own. He added: “What we’ve done is to prevent the worst excesses, to stop the emphasis on competition and put the emphasis on quality. I guess my largest complaint is that it has taken 12 months and it has taken people’s eye off the ball when it comes to delivering health care at the chalk face.”
This political game of chess for Nick Clegg is therefore an extremely complicated one. If his party supports the Bill, he could be supporting legislation modernising the management of the NHS ‘in the national interest’. However, many MPs and activists from various parties have warned that this Bill is no longer fit for any purpose.
If Liberal Democrat MPs are successfully whipped to recommend the Bill for enactment, the popularity of David Cameron is very unlikely to be affected. Ed Miliband will have been handed a gift for the 2015 general election, and the Liberal Democrats might achieve their lowest poll rating ever. Despite the national interest, does Nick Clegg wish this to be his lasting legacy for the Liberal Democrats?
If, on the other hand he decides to urge his party to oppose the Bill, he will have strengthened the importance of the Liberal Democrats in the Coalition, and may indeed have done England a big favour. That might be a more fitting legacy.
Nick Clegg and Gillian Duffy
I don’t think Nick Clegg talking to Gillian Duffy as if she’s really stupid really helped the nature of this conversation. I have never understood why Clegg is so compelled to form a coalition which ever party has the most seats, as he could have called another election; what we have now is incredibly unstable, and it’s as if Clegg has no idea what his party’s policies are, but he just wants power.
We’ll see whether this was the right approach in the May elections.
Click here to listen.
The May Elections and a conservative outcome
Of course, I’ve heard the speak about how we live in a country, England, that is fundamentally left. I am not convinced. I still believe that, as a country, we’re very conservative, with the small ‘c’. Not ‘C’ for the other word I commonly encounter in relation to the coalition’s cuts on Facebook.
The implications of this for May 6th are pretty straight-forward. We go from a position where people were voting to keep Cameron out to a position where people vote to keep Clegg out. A vast majority of people feel that Nick Clegg has been utterly useless in government in voicing any concerns about EMA, tuition fees, and a vast gamut of themes. Therefore, they simply won’t vote for anything that remotely represents him. This could mean that people will vote Conservative or Labour, according to what will achieve that aim. I do not feel that there is widespread hatred to the cuts, as there is possibly towards the tuition fees. There is an unspoken sense that many members of the general public do appreciate the argument that it’s unwise to spend £120 million/day on interest. I would not be surprised if the Conservatives actually do rather well in the elections. It is not impossible that, with the current electoral system, they could even win. There is, of course, a huge number of people who oppose the rate and depth of the cuts, but they might find the odds voting against the sitting government heavily stacked against them.
And what does being conservative mean for the AV vote? Well, in this new breaking pledge era, Labour’s previous commitment to it is not that important. It does mean, however, people might vote in favour of keeping the status quo, particularly if it means that the second choice doesn’t come out as victorious (a Nick Clegg clone), or if they simply don’t understand the new system. If the country votes ‘No’ for AV, it might be seen as a tacit indorsement for David Cameron, but it will be difficult to ignore the impact this has on Nick Clegg. No matter how hard the spin doctors tell us to keep the issues separate.
Extradition – testing the value of human rights
The Conservatives don’t like the Human Rights Act; the Liberal Democrats like it. Now they are in coalition, and have somehow formulated a position on control orders. Extradition is much more difficult, from the point of view of the legislature. The law of extradition from England and Wales was made less complex by the Extradition Act [2003] which was a response to the raised terrorist threat in Europe. Extradition was made much easier.
The judiciary provides relative certainty in this world of uncertainty. The decision by the European Court of Human Rights to block the extradition of Abu Hamza, the radical Muslim cleric, to America to stand trial on alleged terrorist offences poses a challenge to the Coalition government. The Conservatives promised to repeal the Human Rights Act – but that would make no difference because the European Convention on Human Rights would still apply to British law and it is on this that the Strasbourg court relies for its judgments.
It is an absolute prohibition for a signatory to the ECHR to remove anyone to a place where they would be subject to inhumane or degrading treatment. Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights prohibits “inhuman or degrading punishment”. The article has a long history, expressly evoking the 1688 Bill of Rights, which prohibits “cruell and unusuall punishments”. Unlike other rights, Article 3 is unqualified, which means that a State is not permitted to justify a breach on any grounds. It is now uncontroversial (in the courts, at least) that to return a person to a country where there is a real risk that they will be in danger or torture, loss of life or inhuman or degrading treatment would breach Article 3. Therefore, the courts have no choice but to prevent any extradition or deportation which would put a person at serious risk.
Gary McKinnon has been accused of hacking to various U.S. computers. Gary McKinnon’s legal battle has included a number of appeals to the Administrative Division of the High Court. In July 2009, Lord Justice Burnton rejected his claim that, due to his mental condition, his detention would involve inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment which would, if committed in this country, infringe Article 3. The judge held that the bar for inhuman and degrading treatment had been set high in previous cases, and stated that McKinnon also claimed under Article 8, the right to private and family life, but this was also rejected, as his extradition was found to be a lawful and proportionate response to his alleged offending. Unlike Article 3, Article 8 is a qualified right, which means that it can be overrided if there is a strong public interest in doing so.
The case has now been adjourned by the Home Secretary so she can consider the medical evidence afresh. Geoffrey Robertson QC calls this a test case for principles and suggests that the Home Secretary’s “main difficulty will be to override her Home Office advisers who have for years fought an unremitting, expensive and merciless battle against this poor man and his indomitable mother” However, the legislature – or rather an important part of it – has meant this story has taken, for the time-being, a turn for the worse. Nick Clegg, last week, said it would be ‘better all round’ for the two not to discuss the details of the case, which has now been grinding on for seven years. The Americans are demanding the extradition of Gary, 45, despite medical experts warning he will kill himself if sent to the U.S. for trial. Mr Clegg had been implacable in his support for Gary in opposition. He stood by Mrs Sharp’s side at a demonstration outside the Home Office in December 2009.
What we do not have is clarity on the future of the Human Rights Act. Mr Ken Clarke, the Justice Secretary, said Britain would seek to kick-start reform of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and the European Court on Human Rights when it takes up a key role in Europe later this year. However, Lord Justice Woolf has signalled there is very little chance of anything changing because it would mean persuading 47 countries who are all signed up to the Convention. The Prime Minister has announced a commission to examine the creation of a British Bill of Rights and the country’s relationship with the European court. Lord Woolf, who was the country’s most senior judge between 2000 and 2005, said a Bill of Rights would also cause conflict between the two.
The upshot for David Cameron and Nick Clegg – talk is cheap, when the future of human rights in individual people are at stake.
If we are serious about left progressive politics, we should appear to mean it.
It is easy to blame the demise of ‘left, progressive politics’ on Nick Clegg. This vehement dislike for Nick Clegg is inadvertently encouraged by the spin and media factories of the Liberal Democrats to argue that a majority of people voted for a Coalition – this is not true, as no-one can vote a priori for a hung parliament (as such). I would argue that people wished to vote anti-Cameron instead, in favour of a left progressive agenda. In fact, the last thing they wanted was a Tory Lite in the form of Nick Clegg – but that’s what they’ve got.
This is what worries me about the future. I am still keen on the growth of left progressive politics. Labour conceded a long time its mistakes on the erosion of civil liberties (e.g. periods of detention in terrorism, ID cards), but needs to be aggressive in demonstrating that it had over a period of centuries a commitment to civil liberties, in fact. The Tories simultaneously argue that there has been an erosion of civil liberties and that the Human Rights Act is too ‘liberal’. The Liberal Democrats strongly indorsed the Human Rights Act (1998) before they got into bed with the Tories for political opportunism; the Tories violently opposed the Act, preferring an unenforceable aspirational Bill of Rights instead.
The future includes aspiring Councillors like Lisa Harding. Here is her website:
http://lisaharding.mycouncillor.org.uk/
There is no doubt about Lisa’s commitment to her Party (the Liberal Democrats), nor indeed to her local constituency.
Indeed, a friend of mine on Facebook wrote as follows,
Really, really interesting that was. Thank you. If all councillors showed this much enthusiasm for the history of the place they are representing we’d all be a darn sight better off. Well done Lisa Harding.
There’ll be a cold day in hell before the Lib Dems ever get a vote from me. But with people like this on their team, they should be very proud. I shalll mail this to Mr Clegg and voice my approval after work 
I will not go as far as to say the Labour Party as a whole should ‘work with’ the Liberal Democrats. After all, we know the rather unpleasant diatribe that Tim Farron and Nick Clegg have produced against Labour’s spending during the world recession. However, I would really like an appreciation that a progressive left agenda can be worked out on human rights. Take for example the disaster that was waiting to happen between the Tories and Lib Dems on control orders. And also – for any chronic patient in the NHS or any parent sending their kid to school in the state sector – such demonisation and vilification of the State won’t be tolerated any longer. The ‘Big Society’ has failed, and there is a reason for that.
"It's a whopper!" [hat tip: @alanmills405]
What’s the worse thing that could been promised? A pledge on bankers’ bonuses or tuition fees. Oldham East and Saddleworth might provide some clues – or maybe not.
hat tip: http://twitter.com/#!/alanmills405
Oldham and Saddleworth
My letter from Ed Miliband
Shibley,
As you may have seen on last night’s news I have been campaigning in Oldham East and Saddleworth against the Tory-led Government’s VAT hike. This increase in VAT, which kicked in at midnight, is the wrong tax at the wrong time. This is the message we need to get out in Oldham East and Saddleworth.
And we now have just 9 days left to do it before polling day.
Our excellent Labour candidate is Debbie Abrahams. Her campaign team have just had a great new leaflet printed spelling out what the VAT hike means for real families – even on Nick Clegg’s own figures the average family will be £389 worse off.
Our campaign centre is open from 8.30am until 7pm every day from now until the election. It is located at 11 Lees Road, Oldham. OL4 1JS. If you want to call ahead or if you have any questions then please call: (07872) 417249.
I will be back campaigning in Oldham East and Saddleworth before polling day so I hope to see you there.
We need to send that message to David Cameron and Nick Clegg – VAT is the wrong tax at the wrong time.
Yours,
Ed Miliband ?Leader of the Labour Party
My letter to Ed Miliband
Dear Ed,
I will not be physically attending Oldham and Saddleworth, as I find journeys difficult on grounds of my disability.
However, I am confident that Labour will hold its head up high, given how the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have brought politics to all-time low regarding taxation. Even today, I noticed that you had to warn about George Osborne misleading the public on the degree to which VAT is progressive. This is a far cry from the photo-opportunistic pledge of David Cameron and Nick Clegg at the last election, and sadly I expect nasty politics from them locally as they campaign for this seat, and fail.
Yours sincerely,
Shibley
Member of the Holborn and St Pancras Constituency Labour Party
Nick Clegg's New Year Message to Shibley: a leader without followers
Dear Shibley,
Well what a year! A white-knuckle election; a new coalition government; Liberals in power for the first time in 70 years.
I’ve recorded a short message reflecting on the events of 2010 and looking forward to what Liberal Democrats will deliver in Government in 2011.
Some people will continue to predict the worst for our Party – the same people who have been underestimating the Liberal Democrats for as long as we have existed.
But we prove them wrong at every single turn. The next twelve months will be no different, because we will continue to build the liberal, fairer, greener Britain that we all believe in.
Happy New Year!
Nick Clegg
Liberal Democrat leader
Labour knows its mistake over civil liberties from the last time – but it’s a lie to say that the Liberal Democrats are the only party of civil liberties. Nick, your party makes me sick!
There is a better way: Nick Clegg and his last Christmas
There is an economic crisis – it is a crisis of high unemployment and stagnant growth; it is not, as the ConDems insist, a crisis of the public finances. The ConDems have systematically distorted and exaggerated problems with the public finances. The UK was never in danger of becoming the next Greece. The rising deficit reflected the collapse in tax revenues and rising cost of unemployment benefits during the recession. It was not caused by out of control public spending.
History does not support the ConDem assertion that cuts will be good for growth and jobs. But history does support the STUC’s belief that deep and premature cuts will lead to persistently high unemployment.
There is a Better Way!
Video : "9/12/10 Tuition Fee Protest – What The BBC Didn't Report" by Xanna Ward Dixon
“9/12/10 Tuition Fee Protest – What The BBC Didn’t Report” by Xanna Ward Dixon
