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I am basically a member of the UK Labour Party. I thank the late Baroness Thatcher, as I found her administration repulsive. I think though her greatest achievement was toxifying the Labour Party, and we are slowly making up for lost time. It is clear that some people are sick of being enslaved by financial markets, while some people seem to be doing extremely well, thank you. The way that the sick and disabled have been treated by the Liberal Democrats working for a ‘fair society and strong economy’, The annihilation of legal aid in their bid for a ‘fair society’ equally repels me. in conjunction with their Conservative masters disgusts me. In the Wartime coalition, Labour criticised the Conservatives’ policies and got credit for it. Instead, the Liberal Democrats have bent over backwards so much it hurts. They will reap what they so. We seem to have enough money to go to war, but not enough money to keep an adolescent with mental health problems out of a police cell for a night. The economy is clearly screwed, with falling tax receipts, in a race to the bottom with zero hour contracts favouring hedge funds and employers who don’t give a monkeys about workers’ rights. I have never seen David Cameron eat a bacon butty, but I don’t think I would like that either.

The end of the Conservative Party is nigh. For that reason alone, I’m not bored of Brexit.



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It’s a bad start for the leading finalists in the Conservative leadership election to say that their party will be annihilated unless Brexit is ‘delivered’. Let’s face it – the implementation of Brexit by the Conservative Party, with no involvement of devolved governments or the official opposition, has been a disaster after three years. You only need to look at Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson to see that the Conservative Party will soon be totally unelectable for a generation.

 

Boris Johnson exudes incompetence, arrogance, faux intelligence and self-entitlement. Jeremy Hunt fraudulently pretends that his negotiation with junior doctors was a success despite being deeply traumatic unnecessarily for all parties involved.

 

Brexit will do nothing to help with knife crime, or the parlous state of social care. ‘Taking back control’ means reinforcing your borders. So it’s no surprise that Ireland wants to reinforce its border to stop non-EU goods leaking from the UK into the EU single market. Brexit will do nothing to make universal credit run more smoothly.

 

Whatever your views on the economic future of the UK after Brexit, it’s beyond any reasonable doubt that the reputational damage for the UK in terms of an influential world force for good, apart from Trump’s America, has been enormous.

 

If the UK exits the European Union with a successful negotiated settlement, it is pretty likely that the Pound will plummet further. This of course is an opportunity for short-sellers. But the benefit for the City is likely to be shortlived, if the EU denies passporting rights for transactions in London.

 

I don’t understand some voters who might want to ‘get on with it’. I liken this to someone arsoning your flat. Instead of putting out the fire, you are asking the arsonist to pour more petrol on the flames. I don’t understand why some voters have gone all silent on immigration. Maybe they know that Brexit might actually catapult an increase in brown or black faces in their local vicinity. I don’t understand why some voters are still passionate about past glories of England, when their local car plant is being shut down to be relocated to somewhere more sensible for dealing with the international supply chain,.

 

Being socialist meant to me being social. This does not mean turning our backs on, socially, politically, or economically with our EU neighbours. The pretence that Brexit can build a socialist nirvana in one country has never been tested for. It is naïve at best, and profoundly economically illiterate at worst, to think that multinational corporates can be completely obliterated from a post-Brexit UK.

 

It’s too late to honour the referendum result, unless the same parliament, with a different Prime Minister, can ‘seal the deal’ with the negotiated outcomes. This is unlikely if Labour continue to reject the deal, which they should do as it does not fulfil their original stipulated requirements of being at least as good as membership. The EU after their summer recess have no intention of re-opening the negotiation. The whole country apart from the Conservatives and Rory Stewart know that the positions of Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson are a pack of lies.

 

The only way forward is for Labour to decide on whether it wants to renegotiate a settlement (to which the EU would have to agree) or whether it simply wishes to end this stressful madness by revoking Article 50.

 

David Cameron’s ‘holding operation’ of an EU referendum has stunningly backfired. If Labour is unable to get a majority in the general election, to work with the Greens, SNP or Liberal Democrats, and to form a coalition of sorts will have to adopt a pro-EU position. These facts need to be stated clearly ahead of any general election it wishes to participate in, unless it is Labour’s intention to scoop up votes to form a coalition with the Brexit Party.

 

If Labour were to take a pro-EU stance, if the EU can’t renegotiate the settlement, it’s my genuine belief that the Conservatives will be out of power for a generation.

 

And, if so, good riddance to them.

 

@dr_shibley

Time for the discussion of Brexit to get beyond hashtags and internal bickering



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The fireworks, after Sadiq Khan’s recent display, have certainly been impressive, with the likes of Roger Helmer foaming and frothing at the mouth. I am happy with what the current leadership of Labour has achieved. I have no intention of ‘smearing’ members of Labour. I would dearly love to see a Labour government. But it is an inescapable fact that there is, in fact, no version of Brexit that will satisfy both ardent supporters of Brexit and citizens of the UK who want to remain members of the European Union. If a further referendum is held, the possibility is that whichever side wins won’t win by that much of a margin. If ‘leave’ win, the words ‘be careful what you wish for’ will come back to haunt many. Many of the people who want a People’s Vote want ‘Remain’ to win, and simply wish to hold a referendum to maintain the importance of ‘democracy’. But democracy would possibly mean the UK could bring back capital punishment. Brexit as a solution to all the problems caused by neoliberal capitalism including austerity is a false, fraudulent prospectus. Attacks on ‘Blairites’ are in my view utterly irrelevant now to getting Labour into a position to form the next Government; this does not mean I am a ‘Blairite’, and such a lazy attack would be yet another dead cat.

 

There are some people who are determined to make this all about Jeremy Corbyn. I voted for Jeremy Corbyn twice, as I wanted stability in the Labour Party. I think though the obsession with him has become insufferable, including people who spend all the time flooding my Twitter timeline with plans for “Twitterstorms”. The perception is that Jeremy Corbyn has become more obsessed with getting into Number 10, rather than sorting out other desperate problems within his party, including Brexit. There’s an argument that ‘conference had decided’ that there would be a “people’s vote”, and failing that there would be a general election. However, events have been evolving fast.  The Labour position is deeply unconvincing, and, whilst Jeremy Corbyn’s position ‘has not changed’, the notion that it will be able to negotiate successfully a solution to Brexit, the unicorn approach, is deeply unconvincing. This is nothing to do with my views of Barry Gardiner. The nature of the debate has become extremely toxic, with callers to local radio here in London referring to ‘illegal immigrants’ who can be shown not to be telling the truth with bone marrow aspirates diagnosing to the year their biological age, or “strapping Sadiq Khan” to a Catherine wheel (like yesterday).

The leader of the Conservative Party has had her position consolidated as a result of the failed ambush by the ERG. The only event which is likely to happen is that preparations are being made for the Theresa May negotiated agreement with the European Union to be rejected by parliament. In which case, a central plank of Government’s policy will fall, and it could be then that Labour is saving itself for a ‘no confidence’ vote in the Government, having previously precipitated a no confidence vote in the Prime Minister personally. Brexit has already proven to be a ‘financial opportunity’ for those sympathetic to the views or personnel of this Government, including problematic private companies taking on substantial financial transactions in commercial transactions extracting money from the State to fund their shareholder dividends. This is classic privatisation. The worst is yet to come, of course, with ‘patriotic’ Conservatives short-selling the currency, so betting on its demise, to make millions.

 

This is of course a far cry for why certain might have voted to ‘leave’ the European Union. It is speculation why exactly they believed a position which was impossible to negotiate bilaterally, given the sheer torrent of lies told by Nigel Farage, David Davis, Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, and their ilk. But the potent ‘taking back control’ did tap into a rump of voters who felt as if the economy had not been working for them, by immigrants under-cutting their wages, and themselves adding to pressures on state-run services, inter alia. Many such voters, many of whom were also Labour voters, do not agree with the nationalism of some members of local clubs. The narrative had emerged that the UK can make a success on its own.

 

It is, however, important to remember that this mess should be owned by the Conservatives. This means that the failure of Brexit must be owned by the Conservatives. It is all very well for Theresa May to ask for no arguments and reconciliation, but she was the one who took her toys home two years ago and produced a deeply divisive partisan strategy for conducting the negotiations on behalf of the country with the European Union. The European Union cannot be blamed for their agreed settlement.  If parliament votes it down, it should not be allowed to allow ‘no deal’ to be shoo-horned through, especially since the country is totally unprepared for it. The only people who are prepared are the ones about to receive privatised contracts from friends in the Government, or people ‘betting’ in the City.  They have no interest in the destruction of the UK, including what happens to the NHS and social care. This is a betrayal of a phenomenal scale, and the Labour Party should keep a safe distance so it is not implicated in causing this disaster. The ‘shock’ of a no deal is of course will be exactly the sort of climate where the ERG or those in the ‘hard left’ can see themselves flourishing. It might even be a tempting climate for ‘Lexit’ to take root, but I don’t believe Lexit provides a solution either economically or socially, definitely not politically, to Brexit.

 

The only solution for me is for Labour to campaign on a platform in any general election to go back to the European Union, and to argue not only for a seat at the table of an influential trading bloc, but to ‘remain and reform’. I understand how tempting it might be for the UK to ‘go it alone’ and get contracts with Russia or China, but it is in reality hard to say that this would be easily possible. Having been a devotee of Tony Benn, and read all his diaries more than once, I am sympathetic to the Bennite view. But that’s where it ends.  I think we can no longer within Labour waste any more time thinking Twitter arguments. There is an economic crisis to avert, but there’s more to Labour than a new radical model of economics even. Brexit will be more of a threat to welfare and social care, and the NHS, than even austerity has been, and there will certainly be no finality to the repercussions for Brexit for many years to come. It’s time for the ‘membership’ of Labour Party to stop thinking about Twitter campaigns, stop speaking to themselves, and put the country first.

 

@dr_shibley

Why I think Labour is wrong over Brexit



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This has got absolutely nothing to do with the Iraq War or Tony Blair. The background to this for me is personally relevant. I’ve voted Labour all my life – in other words, at every general election since 1992. I voted for Jeremy Corbyn twice as leader of our party, so let me indulge you on why I think Labour has to tread very carefully now.

 

The likelihood is that the main motion on December 11th, the Government and European Union proposal, will not be accepted. This defeat means that Labour will deliver on a promise for a ‘no confidence’ motion. And the likelihood is that even despondent Tory MPs, with no obvious successor in sight, will not want to inflict a defeat in that no confidence motion. We already know that the DUP, despite their reservations over the EU/UK proposal, intend to support the Conservative Government. So, as for Jeremy Corbyn’s challenges, this might end up consolidating and reinforcing Theresa May’s position as the Prime Minister.

 

These events won’t make the problem of the European Union exit disappear. The clock is still ticking on the UK’s exit. The position that would be, however, that the UK parliament will have rejected the mutually agreed terms for departure. The departure of the UK was always presented by Brextremists as being entirely on the UK’s terms, well Little England’s terms actually. The reality is that the agreement legally will need to show consideration, and will need to be bilateral with an intention to produce a meaningful arrangement.

 

The absence of a deal, or ‘crashing out’ of the European Union, would be disastrous on a number of fronts, ranging from medicines to airports. But with a lack of instant agreement on WTO processes, we would not be able to sell our products with agreed standards abroad. That is one of the biggest problems, aside from other major problems such as the lack of radionuclides for urgent cancer treatment.

 

It cannot be forgotten also that the EU has been incredibly patient and accommodating with the UK government, and themselves have earned a ‘good deal’ by all reasonable measures. So, they’ve run of patient a long time ago, but they want this all settled now. This means that they have already stated categorically that they don’t want a renegotiation, and this is unlikely to change with a change of government. It would, however, be useful if the EU could state their position on this now.

 

One of the former heads of the civil service of the UK government has said it would take at least 7 months to sort out the logistics of a people’s vote. We’d have to agree the question too.

 

I think socially, economically and politically, now that we know on what terms the UK would depart from the EU, different from when the original ‘will of the people’ was measured, it would be a disaster to exit the European Union.

 

People make mistakes, and, as a surrogate phenotype, UKIP won’t care as they are changing in public into their BNP clothes. The Conservatives are admired for their control of their economy (which I disagree with). Labour is not. Lexit is also a deeply deceptive construct, as it is always possible that exceptions can be carved out for public services for the UK. The EU didn’t make us legislate for competitive tendering in NHS services in section 75 in the Health and Social Care Act 2012. The guff about state aid and greater public investment as a result of Lexit are so false it belongs on the side of a bus.

 

A lot of the problems in our country have been entirely self-inflicted by the domestic governments, such as welfare reforms including universal credit and the ‘Bedroom Tax’. These have been nothing to do with Brussels. At the risk of re-running the refererendum campaign, Jeremy Corbyn can legislate for his socialist nirvana for all, promoting equality, fairness and social justice, even if the UK remains part of the EU.

 

The Conservatives are also admired for their decisiveness. Whilst Barry Gardiner will deny he has vassilated from warning against a ‘vassal state’ to embracing the ‘will of the people’, it all is beginning to look a bit false and hollow from Labour. I agree they need to win an election to get anything done, but, if they willingly want to give a vote to people knowing that the UK could tank in the process, I don’t believe they can be supported.

 

@dr_shibley

 

Jeremy Corbyn and the whole of Labour has become the ultimate nightmare for the Tories



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As Emily Thornberry said this morning, “There is nothing stronger than a person of principle…. Thanks to Jeremy Corbyn’s inspirational leadership, and the efforts of all the people in this room, it’s time to put Labour values back into government.” Everything has now in fact changed. This is not merely because the Conservative party, and their bullshit such as £350 million re-invested in the NHS, is a ‘busted flush’. It’s much more than that. I first went to the Labour party conference in 2010 in Manchester. It was in fact a few months before my father was to die. I remember my time there crystal clearly. I remember meeting John Prescott for the first (and only) time in a curry restaurant in the Curry Mile, and various people who were both very young and very energised about being in the Labour movement. David Prescott kindly helped me across the street, avoiding being run over by the trams. I had become newly physically disabled at the time, due to meningitis. In fact, I remember going to a fringe event at breakfast time in Manchester Town Hall on the subject of how to engage ‘missing voters’. Ellie Mae O’Hagan was there. Some brilliant contributions from Matt Zarb Cousin stuck in my mind. I wonder what happened to him.

 

At the time, I was in the ‘top ten’ Labour blogs. But now is much better. I think this Labour conference in 2017 in Brighton is full of optimism and hope. Labour for the first time in ages, I feel, has a realistic chance of being the party of government. I think we very mostly agree Jeremy Corbyn has turned ‘pro’. He batted away questions on striking from Andrew Marr with amazing ease yesterday morning. The hacks have made it an open secret that they have no conflict to discuss. The observation that Brexit is not one of the motions for debate is the only thing that desperate hacks can cling onto, but you only have to look at the list which has emerged – which includes the NHS, social care, growth and investment and employment issues – to see that there is no existential crisis in the Labour Party. Not at all. It is a party which is prepared to govern for the many, not the few.

 

The Tories’ economic model of delivering shareholder dividend with rocketing prices, suppressed wages with inflated cost of living, is not appealing to the vast majority. The ‘work til you drop’ approach is terrifying. The way in which disabled citizens have lost their personal independence payment is nothing short of the ultimate in unacceptable morally. Corrupt capitalism has had its day. Grenfell paid testament to that. Outside of the hall, it is very clear that many delegates have been speaking to some of ‘the many’. There has been a strong sense from speakers from the floor to speak out about issues of social justice, in the quest for equalities and fairness. There has been reference to homeless people, which Tony Benn famously used to congratulate market forces for. There has been a clear drive to reset the narrative to appreciate and value migrants and asylum seekers. The Momentum festival has been well received. There is no sense that Polly Toynbee needs to visit it to provide it with external validation. Trade unions defend public services, campaign to prevent abuses of workers and employees, and are no longer a ‘dirty word’.

 

I voted for Jeremy Corbyn twice as leader of the Labour Party, and, like many, it is tempting not to forget so easily the time which has been wasted in setting out the case for Corbyn again and again and again, the carping and criticism from 170 or so Labour MPs, or the whingeing from senior people in the Labour Party keen to ‘blame’ Corbyn for Brexit. Nor is it quite so easy to forgive and forget the amount of time, effort and money taken by the NEC to stop people voting for Corbyn as leader out of fear that all the new members of Labour were Marxist throwbacks from the 1980s. But the surge in membership of the Labour Party is entirely genuine, making Labour a massive democratic party. This is an especially amazing achievement, given the context of how parties such as ‘Alternative for Deutschland’ with an anti-Muslim and anti-migrant, far right, agenda have garnered support to fill the ‘political space’. True that the Labour Party is not entirely a socialist party, although it has socialists in it. But it is also true that there are many more people are loud and proud to be associated with the socialist ideals and values which have been promoted by the current leadership of the Labour Party.

 

Whilst the ‘we want a Jobs first Brexit’ is in danger of being a vacuous phrase, there’s no doubt about the dependence of certain sectors, not least the NHS and social care, on EU citizens living in Britain. If it turns out that the Conservatives are simply unable to negotiate a meaningful settlement with the European Union within two years, it is quite possible that the Labour Party will have to do something drastic about deciding upon a post-Brexit future. Jeremy Corbyn openly explained on #Marr yesterday that it was possible that state aid rules had not made it possible to intervene in industries as he would have liked, and actually had helped to privatise certain industries such as rail. It wasn’t that long ago, after all, that there had been concerns about how TTIP might stitch up a trade deal with the US over the NHS, but now the threat to the NHS from Donald Trump and Jeremy Hunt is far greater. Free movement of workers has had problems also with employees, particularly of multi-national corporates, effectively leading to wage suppression, but this fundamentally was always a problem presented by employers. But Labour is well aware that the UK economy could easily tank on Brexit especially on leaving membership of the signatories to the rules of the “single market” or “customs union”, and the devaluation of the pound sterling and exodus of jobs abroad are both already alarming. But if you think to choose who you want driving the car – Boris Johnson, David Davis and Priti Patel or Sir Keir Starmer, I know who I prefer.

 

Members of the media have consistently been spitting bullets at Corbyn. James O’Brien on LBC spent substantial daily effort into rubbishing Corbyn. The 2017 Labour manifesto was a massive triumph, propelling Labour to its largest vote this century. The Tories claim they even put Jeremy Corbyn on the ballot paper the first time around. Various people sneered at the rallies held by Corbyn across the country, claiming simultaneously that Corbyn had a ‘bunker mentality’ which prevented him from meeting the general public, and saying that there was no such social movement. But it is clear that there is something material and significant happening under the RADAR, as Jess Phillips, Clive Lewis and Laura Pidcock are treated like rock stars rather than members of parliament. Paul Mason, I remember, was often criticised for claiming that “strong and stable” Theresa May would not be returned with a stonking majority, and Paul Mason’s views and opinions, for example, on topics ranging from tuition fees to bellicose nuclear speak from Donald Trump are taken with considerably more gravitas than other commentators. The whole team are pretty awesome now, including Barry Gardiner who is prepared to call out people talking nonsensical crap.

 

Gains such as Canterbury and London Kensington and Chelsea have been amazing. Amber Rudd’s seat in Hastings is now up for grabs. Nobody can fault how amazing Andy Gwynne has been. Of course, much blood has been spilt and this is to be expected from a broad coalition of sorts.  I no longer speak to the Socialist Health Association because of their open support for marketization of the NHS, PFI and Owen Smith. Tom Watson is no longer on Len McCluskey’s Christmas card list. I think critics within Labour have really got the work cut out if they wish not to help Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party prepare for government. You can tell from the reception to the limp interventions from Ben Bradshaw and Heidi Alexander over the single market that they are not the future now. But supporters of Labour fundamentally know that they did not introduce austerity. Vince Cable, on the other hand, did. The Liberal Democrats cannot be absolved from their blame on the bedroom tax, either.  The Fabians, with their star turns, are having trouble trying to reverse the deluge of criticism they have doshed out to Corbyn and colleagues. The Twitter community, with Chunky, Rachael, Steve, Matt, Tom, Peter, Liam, “Scouse Girl”, EL4JC, Michael, WowPetition, Éoin, Matt, Ellie, or Paul, of course going from strength to strength. Labour’s policies speak to the concerns of the many not the few – such as personal debt, only today, being worked up by John McDonnell and Rebecca Long-Bailey. I agree with Jeremy Corbyn that he will need at least two terms of government to get the UK back on course, but there is a real sense of energy, positivity, drive and optimism which means that Labour and its social movement deserve every success.

@dr_shibley

Book review: “Your life in my hands”, Rachel Clarke



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In political circles, there’s an “unwritten rule” that ‘voters don’t do macro’. In other words, voters tend not to get concerned about the actual numerical level of GDP or national minimum wage, but whether policies affecting the country affect them personally.

 

Rachel Clarke’s “Your life in my hands” has 14 chapters, each with a one word title, such as “Haemorrhage” or “Haemostasis”. You realise quite quickly on in this book that the author’s account of being a junior doctor is deeply personal, as well as acknowledging the larger narrative elsewhere. Each chapter has a memorable individual and an equally useful narrative on the wider context.

 

The commitment to being a junior doctor shown by the author is extraordinary. Here is someone who had a glittering career in journalism ahead of her, but who choose to fit in science A levels in her spare time to make her eligible to do a second degree in medicine.

 

The author can spot all the devices of journalistic spin a mile off – so one can only imagine her intense disappointment about the junior doctors’ strike being reduced to an industrial pay dispute, being seen to be protracted by an overzealous BMA, and potentially doing harm to patients whom Rachel Clarke clearly loves.

 

I normally, being annoying, like to read everything very carefully, including the epilogue. And here the epilogue is deeply poignant. It speaks of a personal influence on the author. Sometimes the criticism is that being a junior doctor is simply like doing any other ‘job’, but Rachel Clarke’s personal familial influences on medical professionalism are deeply raw, very insightful and quite often surprising. And the descriptions of very vivid ‘brushes with death’ are incredible.

 

My late father was a much-loved single-handed GP of about 30 years’ standing, and I remember him getting up at 3 am to drive to a patient’s house, when I was a very young boy, even now.

 

The time when Rachel Clarke’s young boy, acting the part of a paediatric surrogate patient, points out to some hapless medical students, ‘it’s called a stethoscope’ is brilliant.

 

Even though the characters referred to in the book are anonymised, I recognised most of them. The descriptions are amazingly fine-grained. If you’re a stickler for detail, the character portraits are brilliant. In my case, the heroin addicts were brilliant at shooting up themselves.

 

The notorious fear of cannulaes and cockroaches would make any junior doctor proud. The accounts of friendships made, as well as experiences such as exact contemporaries saying, “Please could you have a look at this? I’m not really sure”, are brilliantly described.

 

Also, the sheer detachment of the junior doctor workforce from the managers is captured exactly by the promotion of Zumba classes at inappropriate times.

 

The clinical vignettes are accurate and interesting, such as the need to cannulate with very large venflons someone about to engulf herself in a gastrointestinal bleed, or the peaked T waves on the ECG of someone with a dangerously high serum potassium.

 

In my case, one of my latest memories whilst a junior physician at the National Hospital for Neurology and Neurology was the junior doctor in the adjacent cubicle screaming, “Just relax”.

 

This always signalled to me someone to me nervous about his examination technique rather than a genuine appreciation of gegenhalten and other similar phenomena.

 

As someone caught up in the GMC ‘class of 2006’, I have always found the concept of ‘resilience’ somewhat baffling. Rachel Clarke’s analysis of whether junior doctor training can really be likened to training in the army is both sophisticated and fascinating, as doctors invariably do not see themselves ‘in battle’ with their patients.

 

The word ‘resilience’, rather, I find inappropriate as it implies some regulatory frailty which is the fault of the junior doctor. Rather, in the case of a junior doctor with mental health problems, it is a feature of an extended ecosystem of lack of supportive seniors, often in a truly toxic culture, a lack of appointment of a GMC health supervisor, or a protracted regulatory regimen designed primarily to humiliate publicly its respondents, with no discernible endpoint.

 

The book clearly makes out how the professionalism of being a doctor completely defeats everything else. The joy of ‘take a look at this!’ for a medical student, in reference to situs inversus/dextrocardia, or a bulging palpable abdominal aorta aneursym, is wonderfully conveyed in the author’s description. None of this is, of course, captured by ‘productivity’, ‘efficiency’, or ‘innovation’ metrics.

 

I must admit that many of the recent episodes were immediately familiar to me, such as when Rachel and Dagan found themselves sitting at a fold-up table outside Richmond House, or that time messages from a secret group in the BMA found themselves in the public media.

 

The examples of the hashtags made me laugh, how the Secretary of State was unable to control all of the narrative. Nonetheless, the frustration of how the core problem of understaffing in hospital medicine had been exacerbated by deliberate cuts leading to threats in patient safety was clearly palpable like the most dilated vein Rachel Clarke has ever had to cannulate at 4 am.

 

And I do agree with a Twitter follower. When I come to re-read this astonishing book, I will want to do so on my iPad.

 

 

“Your life in my hands: a junior doctor’s story” Rachel Clarke, publisher Metro, July 2017.

 

 @dr_shibley

Whisper it softly. Jeremy Corbyn may even be a strength for the Labour Party.



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One of Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘trump cards’ was that Jeremy Corbyn’s personal vigour and attractiveness had attracted an unprecedented number of younger voters to the Labour Party. Lord Ashcroft’s recent breakdown of the demographics of the people who’d voted in the 2017 general election revealed that many older people, despite the policy disasters over the winter fuel allowance or the ‘dementia tax’, had decided to vote Tory. Critics of Jeremy Corbyn always insisted that these younger voters would never pull their finger out to go to vote Labour. Even when pictures appeared on Twitter of queues of young people voting in predominantly University towns, there remained a hardcore contingent who insisted nothing could be read into the turnout from such spurious anecdotal reports.

 

Owen Jones, to be clear, blamed himself as part of a collective failure ‘of the left’ to get their message across. But I disagree potentially with an important nuance of this. I don’t think it was ever held in doubt that it might have been unconscionable not to give nurses a pay rise. I believe even the most hardened belt-tighteners saw this as fair. John Rentoul for some time appears to have insisted, though I may be wrong, that ‘left wing policies’ are not instrinsically attractive. I think this needs some considerable qualification, even if you agree with the premise that there exists a very clear subset of ideas which are definitely left wing.

 

Supporters of Margaret Thatcher had for a long time resorted to drastic extremist arguments to make their points about state ownership. This varied, for example, from the ludicrousness of having a State removal van company such as Pickford’s, or how one would never contemplate a state-owned supermarket. But I feel this was the first step in taking voters for idiots. It was painfully clear that Southern Rail has been operating as a disaster. The Tories tried to discredit the costings of Labour of returning private rail into state ownership, but leading economists maintained that their criticisms were false.

 

It is well known that Andrew Lansley had in mind the utilities companies, such as British Telecom or British Gas, when thinking about ‘liberalising the market’ in the NHS. However, in economics, basic principles matter. The provision of healthcare is highly complex, and not everything is a homogeneous product such as water or gas. It is possible, conceivably, to hive off high volume and cheap services as hernia repairs into the private sector. But the issue boils down to whether you feel that market failure is a price worth paying for “market forces”. Tony Benn used to remark that whenever he saw a homeless person sleep under Waterloo Bridge he used to think of “market forces”.

 

If you leave anything to the market, there is always the risk that there will be large swathes completely not covered. For NHS patients, this is a disaster, if patients with rarer diseases bear the brunt of lack of coverage just because it is not profitable. This is the problem with taking a liberal view to the market, as indeed the Liberal Democrats had in 2012 pursuant to New Labour earlier.

 

Whilst it might appear easy to ‘ringfence’ younger people with younger issues, these are in fact issues which ‘cut through’ quite a large range of people. I ‘get that’ university fees are likely to affect predominantly people thinking about going to university imminently, but even this is not clearcut due to the mere existence of parents. The NHS is relevant to anyone for promoting health or fixing illness – or even delivering a baby. And the cut through continues for issues such as social housing too, where the purchase of a house to buy to build up your life is unaffordable.

 

The problem now for Labour is whether it develops a false sense of triumph from all of this. That would indeed be a disaster. It is true that Labour managed to make inroads last Thursday on results night in some weird and wonderful places, such as Kensington. It is overall true that Labour did in the end benefit from a ‘remainer’ vote – of people voting who perhaps saw Labour as an achievable way of slowing down a “hard Brexit”.

 

But the problem remains for Jeremy Corbyn for continuing to preach to the converted. There is an argument that ‘one last heave’ might well do it. It’s essential to remember that the Conservatives’ campaign was sensationally catastrophic. I am not sure whether it will become sufficient for Nick Timothy and Fi Hill to take the cop for the disaster, or whether the mission will creep to Sir Lynton Crosby and “strong and stable” Theresa May herself. The Liberal Democrats campaign was pretty dire too, although I don’t take away the achievement of Sir Vince Cable of returning to frontline politics. Remember it was Sir Vince’s acumen that had written off Jeremy Corbyn completely until only last week? The Liberal Democrats’ manifesto seemed to offer obfuscation for delivering Brexit, some spin on drugs of abuse, and little else. Oh yes, and it was launched in a night club surrounded by some controversy over gay sex.

 

Whether it’s shrugging off “the past”, or a failure of teamwork with some people who clearly can’t tango either, Jeremy Corbyn has become the lightning conductor for everyone else’s faults in Labour. I feel that while Corbyn has not got everything right, and I have supported him like every Labour leader for all of my adult life, he has got some of it very right. He has tried to communicate his message through his rallies when it is clear that none of the mainstream media have given him the time of day, resorting to innuendo and further innuendo. And that message is highly relevant to many people. And he offered a vision that was understandable by many – the many who understood, as Nick Timothy identified, that austerity had failed, indeed caused further problems, and was accelerating the decline of England.

 

An unknown is whether the Conservatives would have won if they had got rid of the robotic memes from their campaign and looked as if they did not wish to punish the older vote. Being a longstanding voter on the Left, I can’t help feeling the Tories are a busted flush, but it will take just one single mutation of their offering, like making their leader Boris Johnson, to throw everything into turmoil. On a more pragmatic note, the ‘supply and confidence’ relationship with the DUP is not an ideological marriage made in heaven, and a Government which only just manages to get its Queen Speech passed cannot be considered ‘strong and stable’. It is just as well that Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker always thought that the argument that an increased mandate would mean a stronger negotiating position was complete and utter bollocks.

 

The adage is of course that oppositions don’t win elections, but governments lose them. There is little more to lose from Theresa May, who somehow branded herself into a toxic brand. The reality is that all of this has happened at a terrible time, when issues such as our membership of the single market or the customs union should not be decided by a Conservative administration which has lost its majority and to all intents and purposes on life support.  I entirely get that there will be people who will never vote Labour because of Corbyn, but I can tell you hand on heart there were plenty of people in Labour who felt they could never vote Labour because of Blair or Brown.

 

The fact that Corbyn did manage to win two leadership elections, and poll a share of the vote only second to Clem Attlee, is a disaster for all those pople who had diarised June 9th as the start of the campaign to get rid of Corbyn. Of course the current MPs could take to the media studios, like they did in support of THAT chicken coup, to finish off this government. The truth remains that many of them did not get elected because they hid Jeremy Corbyn out of sight – but that Corbyn in fact spoke to their needs in a way that Tony Blair didn’t. A lot of them could pretend to support Jeremy Corbyn.  I suggest that those who want a senior job in his shadow cabinet at least make an effort to.

 

These are interesting times. What I disliked about the previous lack of support of certain journalists was the fact they knowingly were determined to extinguish my hopes as a well meaning left wing voter, but likewise there are plenty of people like Paul Mason, Steve Richards or Gary Younge who at least were sympathetic. But as far as I’m concerned it has to be water under the bridge. We now need a period of reconciliation to rebuild a country which has been savaged by war.

 

As I said, we live in interesting times.

 

 

@dr_shibley

 

 

The first general election of 2017. My experience as a young-ish ‘Corbynista’.



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I’m not a member of “Momentum”, though I was mildly amused by Andy Marr making reference to the Momentum uniform of the Royal Guards during the recent election coverage. I don’t in fact know what a ‘Corbynista’ is, though I have heard it invariably used as a term of abuse – somebody who is quite young, an ‘entryist Trot’ who doesn’t know what he’s talking about, some member of a cult supporting Jeremy Corbyn.

To disappoint you – I have consistently voted for the Labour Party at every general election since 1992. I am currently 42, and I’m hoping to make my 43rd birthday on June 18th this year.

There was a time when I thought I wouldn’t make my 33rd birthday. Well, sort of. I was completely unconscious at the time, being kept alive on the ITU of the Royal Free where it was anticipated that I would never leave the hospital at the time.

So, I can understand why relatively young people are interested in the NHS. I can understand why people of my age are interested in the abuse of zero hour contracts, or why they feel frustrated at not having had a pay rise as a newly qualified nurse for years. I can understand with the sheer fear of not being able to get a foot on the housing ladder.

I thought the manifesto proposed by John McDonnell and others was excellent. It contained ideas I mostly agreed with, and was relevant to people Labour moderates might call “aspirational”. There was an offer, for example, about tuition fees, which would have given younger people hope.

I had no problem with the manifesto. I liked it because it genuinely inspired hope not fear, and, as the meme goes, was for the many and not the few.

I think Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign was superb.

Despite this, some of the estimates of the Conservative majority were simply ludicrous – 50, 75, 100 or 125 even.

I knew it wouldn’t be anywhere near that – nor did Paul Mason, YouGov or Survation.

He had seven weeks to close a gap, and he did it. Friends of mine would sometimes say to me that they’d heard Corbyn for the first time, and that they were ‘surprised’. The one advantage of the plethora of MPs and all of the media in rubbishing Jeremy Corbyn was that they managed to set the bar for expectations so low. So, when Corbyn started closing the gap, I feel that a critical momentum was achieved, whereby some people were no longer ashamed to say they’d be voting Labour.

During all of this, there was a small but robust band of intelligentsia who could not bring themselves to vote Labour, but needed to vote Liberal Democrats. Those of us who’ve paid any attention to the Liberal Democrats knew that the visceral hatred of Nick Clegg to Labour members is torrential.

I don’t know whether the social media ever ‘converted’ anyone into anyone to voting for Labour, or ‘holding your noise’ and laterally voting for Jeremy Corbyn. I do know however it was great fun, with a strong band of people on Twitter being able to rebut virtually anything. The accusation, of course, is that this was simply furthering an “echochamber”, but many of us felt we had no choice. We felt, not to generalise, that our views were largely misrepresented or totally ignored by the mainstream media.

So, the idea of Jeremy Corbyn being an IRA ‘sympathiser’ was easy to rebut with clear explanations of how Tories had also met “unsavoury” people. A classic example of this was when Emily Thornberry asked Sir Michael Fallon what he was doing meeting Assad in 2007, when he was not even a member of Government.

I’ve never personally understood the expected efficacy of the “magic money tree” argument. Most people who support Jeremy Corbyn are well aware that the economic competence of the Tories is simply the myth. It was tacitly acknowledged that the large national debt of the country had not been well controlled. The deficit target which Sir George Osborne had set for 2015 had mysteriously been extended to 2025.

But it was not simply an issue of the existence of the money tree which caused problems.

Whenever Paul Mason was asked about the ‘magic money tree’, or indeed “Chunkymark” was, the reply would come, “Oh, don’t worry, the magic money tree does exist. It’s in the Bahamas”.

The Panama papers had been recent events, and people on Twitter were accustomed to seeing a particular prominent member of the Cabinet appearing because of her tax avoidance allegations.

I was once warned, “Shibley – be careful. It’s not just the content of what you say that matters, it’s also the style.

When I was watching the BBC Question Time event with Theresa May, I felt the content and style of the answer to the junior nurse who had been denied a pay rise for years was awful. May’s answer that ‘the money tree doesn’t exist’ showed a complete contempt of her situation, also given on the whole voters don’t do “macro”. It showed a complete misreading of the problem with stagnant wages but rising bills, what Ed Miliband might have referred to in discussion of the “squeezed middle”.

This seemed totally inconsistent with the Tony Benn aphorism, “But there’s always money for wars”. There was a fundamental issue why it seemed that the number of hospital beds was being cut, or cuts in social care were rampant, and yet somehow money could appear by magic for vanity projects such as grammar schools or HS2.

As someone who has now voted for Jeremy Corbyn twice, it was incredibly demoralising to see John Woodcock slag off the leader of my political party in public on a repeated basis, or the appearance of complete lack of interest in Jeremy Corbyn’s campaigning from Ben Bradshaw, Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Jess Phillips, Wes Streeting and so on.

And yet again the media would appear the same memes – for example ‘terrorist friends’, economic incompetence (and yet not seeming to worry about the fact that the Conservative manifesto was completely uncosted), raving Trot or Marxist, ‘red under the bed’.

There’s no doubt in my mind, however, that the mainstream media overplayed their hand. There was a complete U turn from Polly Toynbee, but frankly my dear I don’t give a damn. It was far too little too late. Owen Smith MP who was effusive with praise for Jeremy Corbyn had spent months last year trying to take Jeremy Corbyn to the cleaners politically, and failing.

I do think there were people who are genuinely unsure though. I felt this with Owen Jones, who was faultless once the general election was imminent.

The irony now with all the terrorist friends accusation is that the Conservatives need somehow to form an arrangement with the DUP for survival. And it is a fact that all the seats provided by the progressive alliance would not be sufficient to get above the magic number of 326. The argument that Jeremy Corbyn’s appeal was restricted is tempered by the real fact that he obtained a share of the vote only bettered by Clem Attlee.

Everywhere you looked, the Theresa May campaign looked desperately out of touch – Trident, for example, is of limited use in a NHS cyberattack or a terrorist in a built up metropolitan area.

I don’t think many people are sitting down to dinner to discuss Nick Timothy or Fiona Hill. But the conversation topic of how Theresa May spent £130 million to conduct a referendum on herself and lost might come up. It was May after all who demanded a stronger mandate to start the Brexit negotiations. She now has fewer parliamentary seats, the programme for Government will be presented in only a week’s time, and has become a mammoth laughing stock as far as Juncker and Tusk are concerned. Whatever is unclear, it’s pretty clear her negotiating position as regards the DUP or the European Union is the opposite of “strong and stable.”

The Theresa May campaign, from the perspective of a junior ‘Corbynista’, was the worst in my lifetime. I can’t remember anything as catastrophic as the Dementia Tax ever, which was a ridiculously partisan non-solution to a highly complex and important issue of the funding of social care.

The whole flavour of the Theresa May campaign was excruciating to watch with highly robotic and wooden sessions in what appeared like random derelict factories in England. The vernacular “strong and stable” and “coalition of chaos” jarred with the image of Jeremy Corbyn actually looking as if he was enjoying himself. The TV images of this rallies might have been motivating, but I am certain that they were highly motivating for some of us in the social media world.

The Tory Party is ruthless when it comes to its leaders. I think Theresa May’s days are numbered and the issue is whether she will have to delay the negotiations. I don’t believe for a second Theresa May will do the negotiations herself – the negotiations involve complex law, which she simply is not up to.

Theresa May did not give a resignation statement – quite the reverse, it was utterly delusional.

Delusional is when you don’t believe your police cuts are relevant to security.

Delusion is when your immigration targets have not been met ever.

“Now back to work.”

So, while I have no doubt that the Labour moderates are continuing to send their secret emails, and Peter Mandelson is campaigning every day still to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn, I feel extraordinarily happy. Whilst we didn’t officially win, many of us definitely have the feeling we could win – and this matters – if certain people do not continue to undermine us maliciously. Time will tell.

 

@dr_shibley

 

 

Hazarika, Woodcock and Watson are politically the pits but well done Jeremy Corbyn



TW

A swing to Labour in Enfield?

No thanks to the ” solidarity ” of Ben Bradshaw or John Woodcock.

John “Labour is on course for a catastrophic defeat” Woodcock.

Yes – I deeply dislike you. I have no intention of ‘ uniting ‘ with you, mate.

Well done to others who tried to kill off Jeremy Corbyn but who kept their seats.

I have no respect for you either.

I won’t lie about this.

I can’t say I give a toss about Ayesha Hazarika’s pathetic apology for “getting it wrong”.

I am fuming at a number of people in our party who have done nothing other undermine the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbott in the Labour Party.

Thanks to Hilary Benn’s “coup” of sorts, where we wasted months going through a pointless leadership contest for no reason apart from making Jeremy Corbyn ‘bulletproof’, for making us a complete laughing stock.

Yes – that’s right Jeremy’s electability was needed to compensate for all this incompetence from Blairite moderates.

I have voted Labour all my life.

I am 43.

I am totally disgusted at the 172 MPs who stuck the knife into Jeremy Corbyn. We then as the membership, some of which are loyal supporters of Jeremy Corbyn, have suffered gratuitous humiliation on a regular basis from the vast majority of journalists in the Guardian except from Gary Young.

Polly Toynbee has been worse than useless in supporting Labour through the pages of the Guardian, though she did managed to put in a feeble last minute support for Labour.

Yes, the manifesto was brilliant. The policies were socialists but they were popular.

The NHS and social care have been totally unaccountable for their poor performance, despite the staff working extremely hard to keep the NHS safe. This has been nothing short of a miracle, but virtually no Doctor I know has faith in Jeremy Hunt. If he were a doctor, the General Medical Council might haver him referred for compromising patient safety.

And Ayesha Hazarika has done nothing but carp relentlessly and I’m sick of it.

Time for Tom Watson MP to go. He may have given a rousing speech which was wdelcomed in the Labour conference, but I currently have got ten friends who’ve blocked him on Facebook and can’t stand the common perception of his lack of support for Jeremy Corbyn.

We’ve all been fighting for the reputation of the Labour Party despite the pathetic specimens of MPs above.

I’m a remainer.

The Tories are for the time being are sxrewed, but they will rise like a phoenix from the ashes again.

Believe me.

But we must get down to business in Labour – a new leadership contest for Deputy Leader.

And Luke Akehurst can plot his next revenge attack.

Tom Watson, your time is up.

@dr_shibley

It is worth remembering that Theresa May could still be on course for a landslide



T May

Much as it offends my sense of natural justice, it’s still entirely possible that Theresa May is on course for a landslide.

We’ve been told from the horses’ mouths themselves, for example Ben Bradshaw MP and John Woodcock MP, that their strategy has been to tell potential voters to vote Labour. The reason is, “It won’t matter, as Labour doesn’t have a cat in hell’s chance of becoming elected.”

Of course this strategy was easier to sell on the doorstep with such a large polling lead of the Conservatives over Labour.

The experience of the 2015 general election and 2016 EU referendum reinforced the position, as well as the election of Donald Trump, that the polls are ‘unreliable’. The gold standard is what people actually do when it comes to the ballot box.

Of course, there are sorts of reasons why people might not tell pollsters the truth until the last minute. It could well be that there is a swing in the polls, and it happens at the very last minute. There is some evidence, albeit somewhat anecdotal, that this might have happened previously.

There are other reasons – in various combinations, such as the weather, voter turnout, and whether members of the public fundamentally lie to pollsters.

We’ve all been there before where we have seen the dreams of our political parties evaporate as the real results came in. 1992 and 2015 were good examples in my lifetime where I thought Labour was ‘in with the shot’.

But Lord Spencer Livermore and various others have opined on this in slight permutations that the campaign does not fundamentally alter the mood music of the way that voters are feeling.

It is noticeable that in the overwhelmingly negative rhetoric used by Theresa May there has been consistent reference to ‘trust’ – articulated invariably as ‘if 172 Labour MPs can’t work with Jeremy Corbyn, how can he become Proem Minister?’

I have no idea what has been going through the minds of these Labour parliamentarians, save for the fact that the ‘snap general election’ might have caught them by surprise. If they had “trusted” Theresa May, there would be no reason to believe she would go back on her word by wriggling out of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

However, beware the ideas of March – or in this case May. Theresa May had a perception of a healthy poll lead, so why wouldn’t she ‘go for it’? After all, it is well known that Gordon Brown “dithered” after what has hailed as a good budget by George Osborne, and stumbled on to lose the 2010 general election.

The question of trust in Theresa May is of course nonsensical, given all sorts of others which have materialised, for example costing school dinners or the lack of decrease of inward immigration despite numerous pledges, or failure to meet the deficit targets, but again this election swings onto trust again and again.

That is why, I assume, Sir Lynton Crosby has been getting people to bang on about that Nick Ferrari interview with Diane Abbott, or the Emma Barnett Woman Hour’s interview Diane Abbott, or the Sophy Ridge interview with alleged ‘terrorist sympathiser’ connections of Jeremy Corbyn.

Somehow this torrential avalanche of innuendo, from a Tory sympathetic media, it has been hard to displace, even with the ‘power of social media’, the actual news of catastrophic news on school funding, nurses’ pay, repeatedly missed NHS targets, and so on.

As an example, the lasting memory of Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘Question Time’ debate with Jeremy Corbyn is not a sober, detailed analysis of what had happened in London 1 and Manchester, nor what was about to happen in London 2, but the memory of ten White middle aged men fantasising about a nuclear war with Iran – and “would he or wouldn’t he” press that red button?

It could well be that Theresa May’s dreadful electioneering performances don’t matter. It might indeed be the case that she wins despite Jon Snow not having got an interview off a sitting PM for Channel 4 News for the first time in 14 years.

It could well be that many voters remain ‘undecided’ or positively antagonistic about Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott or John McDonnell, despite the well attended Labour rallies reinforcing the idea of ‘movement’ – snd that Jeremy Corbyn will in fact go the same way as Michael Foot who also had well attended rallies.

It is worth noting, however, that the Labour 2017 manifesto has, despite the usual criticisms of fantasy economics, not been dubbed “the longest suicide note in history”, as allegedly coined by the late Sir Gerald Kaufman.

It could well be ‘Tory arrogance’ that Theresa May wins for an enhanced ‘mandate’ in the Brexit elections.

It could well be that she wins with a landslide – even if that means ‘hard Brexit’ and the NHS and social care collapsing further within five years.

@dr_shibley

Theresa May’s campaign is the pits



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As for last night’s debate…..

For all the criticisms of Jeremy Corbyn’s “incompetence”, Corbyn managed to nail it today. He referred to Theresa May as inciting “pumped up animosity”. Theresa May has not been able to give even the most basic details about what future cuts are in store from the failed austerity of the Conservatives, nor what ‘no deal’ in Brexit without inclusion in the EU single market would actually mean.

 

The Conservatives are now very exposed indeed. Every one should be concerned about the lack of vision of Theresa May for the future of this country. And to be honest quite a few people have not treated with Jeremy Corbyn with the respect he clearly deserved as twice democratically-elected leader of the Labour Party. Journalists are incredulous that Jeremy Corbyn has staged an ‘astonishing comeback’, but to be fair to Team Corbyn the narrative was likely to change if the narrative switched from personal attacks on Corbyn to a focus on policies.

Take Carville’s “It’s the economy stupid”.

Even that rule book is in tatters through exposing the truth about Tory economics.

As for the ‘rule book’, Jeremy Corbyn has thrown out the doctrine that campaigns are irrelevant – something which Spencer Livermore is said to believe in. The argument goes that if the mood music has been sustained for long enough no amount of campaigning will make a difference. This is of course what the toxic parliamentarians in the Labour Party has relied on. They had hoped that Jeremy Corbyn would put in such a disastrous performance in this snap election that getting rid of Corbyn would be like taking sweets off a child following the result on June 9th.

 

The latest poll finds that Labour is closing the gap with Tories and now stands just three points from Theresa May’s party, a new YouGov poll shows. The poll, commissioned by The Times, found the Conservative lead has slipped dramatically in recent weeks and is now within the margin of error. I am deeply ashamed of the reaction to Emma Barnett, but that interview for me shone out for how Jeremy Corbyn dealt with, with dignity, to not knowing a particular election costing. Barnett’s attitude appeared to be one of someone wanting to slip you up and humiliate you, and I very much oppose this. This is the same approach which saw the parliamentary Labour Party in large part 2015-7 decide to strangle Corbyn’s leadership rather than nurture it.

 

The figures show the Conservatives on 42 points but Labour are close behind on 39. This has only been possible from the barrage of lies from the Tory media. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are struggling to maintain the momentum of their “fightback” as they slip to just 7 per cent vote share. Based on last night’s ratings, it was calculated that Theresa May was knocking on at least 648 doors a second to have the same reach. May is already in a worse situation even she wins the general election, as her brand has been exposed for what it is. An uninspiring, shower of a shit-storm of boredom. Could throwing away a 20% poll lead soon mean for Theresa May that “exit means exit”? The knives are certainly out.

 

The fact that Sir Lynton Crosby has taken sole responsibility for the election, according to Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt, and when Crosby tells them all to jump the only query is ‘how high’, means that Theresa May has become nothing other than an actor speaking her lines. And if Theresa May stays as PM, as the continuity candidate, Jeremy Hunt will continue to dismantle the NHS. May will lie at any cost to keep her job. She maintains the myth that she will be conducting the negotiations, when it is clear that someone else like Boris Johnson or David Davies will do it. Corbyn has clearly already said that Sir Keir Starmer QC would lead the negotiations for the Labour Party. The campaign does matter. Jeremy Corbyn is now London’s favourite candidate. The policies of the Labour Party are more popular than those of the Conservative Party.

 

I couldn’t agree more with John Prescott. The #BBCDebate showed us the Conservatives with their non road tested ‘leader in hiding’ making any old stuff up, talking about a long term plan without actually having one. Theresa May’s ex-communications chief has penned a devastating critique of her former boss’s botched social care U-turn, which knocked the Tory election campaign off course. Katie Perrior said the ground should have been laid to publish the policy weeks in advance, but it was instead “whacked out in a manifesto and briefed the night before”. She also said those in charge of the Conservative campaign had failed to manage lofty expectations of a landslide when it first launched.

 

The whole campaign of Theresa May has had the content and style of a bucket of cold sick. “Strong and stable” Theresa May is instead “Incredibly dull and robotic”, with stunning U turns on whether to call the election, or the Dementia Tax. The Conservatives are riding on a stench of entitlement and arrogance, which means they don’t care that their school meals are costed at 7 p per person. All of this does leave an impression about what kind of a leader Theresa May can be for us. As someone noted earlier from ITV, she actually refuses to answer any questions (for example how many people will have their winter fuel allowance taken away, or what the upper cap of the Dementia Tax will be.) Theresa May thinks that the voters can yet further cope with a week of more of this drivelfest. It is possible that some basic mixup of communication meant that Theresa May simply got her wires crossed, and did not turn up to the Senate House in Cambridge because the event was not being held in a cold warehouse or factory with pre-packaged Tory stooges. It’s actually even worse than that.

 

For all the criticisms of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, the expectation for Corbyn was set so low that Corbyn’s subsequent performance has subsequently been hailed as incredible. And for Corbyn’s supporters he is genuinely worth supporting. On the other hand, but Theresa May gives a strong impression of NOT wanting to answer questions directly and even telling the truth. I don’t know about you, but if I didn’t show up to the job interview, my prospects may be limited. If Theresa May does not happen to win the general election or to increase the size of her majority, questions will be asked about whether her ‘no show’strategy was fair to voters. On a practical point, one is entitled to think May stayed away from the #BBCDebate because every time she opens her mouth the polls for Tories drop another a few points. Her performance is genuinely shambolic, and this is of no particular surprise as she has not ever been properly ‘road tested’ apart from the Conservative Party and Laura Kuenssberg.

 

But in the real world, Theresa May is shambolic. Right wingers are obviously entitled to claim that last night’s audience was left wing biased, presumably because there wasn’t a fair number of Saudi Arms dealers. But in ComRes’ defence, the demographics of the audience had been meticulously worked out. A big problem now is that Theresa May is seen as a weak leader, as she couldn’t be bothered to turn up to the #BBCDebate. She therefore has no moral authority to attack Jeremy Corbyn for his leadership, when in fairness Corbyn’s answers on leadership (ranging from not being a dictator to the importance of listening) have been impressive. People are now not laughing with Theresa May, but laughing at her. The lady is not even for turning up.

 

Yep it is incredible that she’s busy losing the biggest lead in election history.

Even Corbyn ‘dark past’ smears are now longer working with an electorate who are more worried that the Tories wish to continue with their disastrous NHS and social care policy without batting an eye lid. With all the added scrutiny, the Tories and their journalists are not so vocal about their support for Apartheid quite so much any more.

 

Amber Rudd was laughed at during the #BBCDebate when asking the audience to trust the Tories “on our record”. Caroline Lucas, who is fast being recognised as a leading light in the new progressive alliance, was right to allude to how defending arms sales to Saudia Arabia as a strong economic benefit is a perfect illustration of how Tories value profit over people, and is morally indefensible. I agree that many people probably know little of the ‘money tree’ apart from a stick with which to beat the Labour Party. But a party which has progressing towards doubling the national debt in recent years is not in a good position to lecture on basic macroeconomics. The UK economy due to the flawed foundations of George Osborne, of poor productivity poor employment rights ‘gig economy’ is currently a busted flush, as today’s disastrous global figures how.

 

Voters are no longer falling for these pumped up lies from the Tories on their economic policy – for instance, economic growth, two words absent from Tory economic policy, act as ‘a money tree’ as does fair and equitable redistribution of income/wealth. Drinkers at the last chance saloon toasting to fundamentalism of supply side economics have received their last orders. The real money tree is well known to many victims on the left of course. These include dozens of Tory donors ending up on the Sunday Times rich list, Tories turning up in the Panama papers, a deficit not fixed not predicted to be fixed until 2025 now despite of cuts, 4 out of 5 NHS trust in deficit, a Tory manifesto where the only figures are the page numbers, and billions lost in tax avoidance and evasion. Theresa May is a busted flush. 

“The first rule of leadership is to show up”, as Caroline Lucas said.

The policies are popular of the progressive left are popular, and the contrast with the ideologically barren Conservative Party could not be more stark. The proposed programme for government for the Labour Party is as Angela Rayner alluded to is a continuation of ‘unfinished business’ from the previous administration of the brilliant Clem Attlee, who made the NHS a reality, introduced child benefit, nationalised the bankrupt private railways and introduced free secondary education as a right, and many other staggering achievements.

There is no vision with Theresa May.

She is deeply dull and boring.

I feel quite sorry for the person on Twitter who thinks “lefty” BBC is funded by the European Union. I can only assume that he is not paying his license fee. It is of course deeply patronising of Tories and the Daily Mail to tell us #BBCDebate was biased. We can judge that ourselves.

It is now patently clear that too much right wing opinion dressed up as news. And some news or opinion is being given a disproportionate amount of attention. The fact that UKIP are given such platform without an MP at all lends UKIP a credibility they do not deserve. The idea that the #BBCDebate was merely “echo chamber for left-wing views” is entirely risable.

The ConKip brand most definitely has very limited appeal.

Theresa May is trying her very best …

.. to completely blow this election.

 

 

@dr_shibley

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