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Do you remember the final leadership debate?
DAVID DIMBLEBY: Right, we have to bring this part of the debate to an end there, with that question. Thank you very much, all three of you. We end with final statements from each of the three party leaders, David Cameron to start.
DAVID CAMERON: Thank you. I’m standing here for a very simple reason, that I love this country, and I think we can do even better in the years ahead. We can go on, solve our problems and do great things. But we need a government with the right values. We need a government that backs families and understands that the family is the most important thing in our society. We need a government that backs work, and people who try to do the right thing. We need a government that always understands that keeping us safe and secure is the most important thing of all. But there’s something else you need to know about me. I believe the test of a good and strong society is how we look after the most vulnerable, the most frail and the poorest. That’s true in good times, but it’s even more true in difficult times. And there will be difficult decisions, but I want to lead us through those to better times ahead. I think I’ve got a great team behind me. I think we can do great things in this country. If you vote Labour, you’ll get more of the same. If you vote Liberal, as we’ve seen tonight, it’s just uncertainty. If you vote Conservative on Thursday, you can have a new, fresh government, making a clean break, and taking our country in a new direction, and bringing the change we need.
DAVID DIMBLEBY: Thank you. For the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg.
NICK CLEGG: Everything I’ve said during these three television debates is driven by my simple belief that if we do things differently, we can build a better, fairer Britain. As you decide how to cast your vote, of course you’ll be told by these two that real change is dangerous, that it can’t be done. But don’t let anyone scare you from following your instincts. Together, next week, we can change Britain for good. Just think how many times you’ve been given lots of promises from these old parties, and when they get back into government, you find that nothing really changes at all. We can do so much better than that this time. Of course, I can’t guarantee that all the problems you face will be solved overnight, but I can guarantee you that I will work tirelessly to deliver fairness for you. Fair taxes so that you pay less, but people at the top pay their fair share. A fair start, smaller class sizes for your children, a different approach to the economy and decent open politics that you can trust once again. I believe all this can happen. This is your election. This is your country. When you go to vote next week, choose the future you really want. If you believe, like I do, that we can do things differently this time, then together we really will change Britain. Don’t let anyone tell you that it can’t happen. It can. This time, you can make the difference.
DAVID DIMBLEBY: Thank you, Mr Clegg. Now for Labour, Gordon Brown.
GORDON BROWN: These debates are the answer to people who say that politics doesn’t matter. I want to thank everybody who’s been involved in these debates over the last few weeks. They show that there are big causes we can fight for. They also show that big differences exist between the parties. I know that if things stay where they are, perhaps in eight days’ time, David Cameron, perhaps supported by Nick Clegg, would be in office. But I’ve had the duty of telling you this evening that while we have policies for the future, the Conservatives would put the recovery immediately at risk with an emergency budget. I’ve asked David and Nick questions all evening. David has not been able to confirm, but it is the case that inheritance tax cuts will go to the richest people in the country. I believe he’s planning to cut the Schools Budget, and he hasn’t denied it. I believe also that child tax credits would be cut by both parties if they came into a coalition. I believe too that policing would be at risk from a Conservative government, because they have not said they would match us on policing either. And the health service guarantees that we have that gives every cancer patient the right to see a specialist within two weeks would be scrapped by the Conservative Government if they came into power. I don’t like having to do this, but I have to tell you that things are too important to be left to risky policies under these two people. They are not ready for government, because they have not thought through their policies. We are desperate to get this country through the recession and into the recovery, and that is what I intend to continue to do. But it’s up to the people to decide, and it’s your decision.
DAVID DIMBLEBY: Mr Brown, thank you. And thank you to all three party leaders who’ve taken part in this debate, and to our audience here.
Tory Story 3 – Some New Year's resolutions for Labour
By Shibley Rahman / @shibleylondon
Opinion polls consistently return the verdict that Labour is economically incompetent compared to the Conservatives. Many would indeed agree that Labour didn’t get its economic messages across competently in the 2010 campaign. Labour tried to explain its economic strategy through a series of university-style tutorials, and sloppily allowed various ‘facts’ to go unchallenged. Ed Miliband and his team will have to learn from these mistakes.
This article looks at just three assumptions of the Tory Story on the economy. The true success of the Tory Story is its simple but misleading messages. The story has various components: for example, NI is “the jobs tax” but VAT isn’t, Britain is going bankrupt, and government debt is like a credit card debt. Perhaps Labour new year’s resolution should be to stop these corrosive myths from going unchallenged. Rebuilding the trust and confidence of the electorate in Labour’s economic strategy is a marathon not a sprint, so the sooner we get started the better.
Will the VAT have no effect on jobs?
To shift the limelight onto NI as the “jobs tax” is also to present an attractive story to the voter that a VAT hike presents no threat to jobs. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) in May 2010 forecast that as many as 163,000 jobs could be lost in the next four years if VAT is increased. They said that, in its first year, a VAT rate of 20% would reduce the deficit by £11.3 billion, but by the end of that first year there would be 30,000 fewer jobs in the UK, across all employment sectors, than if there had been no increase. The BRC has, instead, urged the government to prioritise public spending cuts over tax rises to tackle the budget deficit, as well as to aim to half the deficit over four years rather than the proposed three. Voters will be looking carefully at the unemployment count, while the expert economists forensically examine the GDP statistics, over the course of 2011.
Is government debt like a credit card debt?
David Cameron and Nick Clegg have consistently likened government debt to credit card debt (like paying for your weekly groceries). This is a plausible common-sense approach based on the electorate’s instinct for belt-tightening, and the hardships they will be experiencing in difficult times. The analogy is clearly weak, but analysis of that is way beyond the scope of this article. Given that the public appear to like this comparison, it might be useful to explain also what might go wrong in such terms. The biggest threat for the UK in 2011 is that unemployment goes up and therefore benefit payments go up, while tax receipts go down. This would be like credit card bills beginning to “flood in”, while you are unable to deposit any money into your bank account.
Is Britain going bankrupt?
In January 2009, David Cameron suggested that there was a “risk” that Britain would go bankrupt. George Osborne also has repeatedly warned that the country was facing financial meltdown. When asked on the BBC’s ‘Andrew Marr Show’ whether it is possible that Britain would go bankrupt, Ken Clarke said in contrast:
“I don’t think it’s a realistic possibility. Though, I mean I’m as gloomy as most people…I think it’s very important to realise the constraints of a responsible opposition.”
The media and the public seem disinterested in discussing this, but the spin of a bankrupt Britain relentlessly goes on unchallenged. Foreign investors currently fund about 35% of the government’s total debts, and there is currently little sign yet of them losing their appetite for government bonds, or gilts – the German government has had more problems selling its debts at recent auctions than the UK.
The solution
Thankfully, official data from the Office for National Statistics about GDP and unemployment will be hard for the coalition to put a positive spin on. When commentators say “it’s the economy stupid”, they fail to appreciate one further addition to that for 2015, that is, “and its social and economic consequences”.
In the meantime, Ed Miliband and team will have to work hard at identifying the reasons why the public trusts the Conservatives with the economy more. It is undeniably hard to explain in a punchy manner why the deficit grew so big under Labour, but a good start would be to point out that the Conservatives did indeed match our spending plans until the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
I wonder what resolutions Labour will make in getting its message across more successfully in 2011…
This article was originally published in LabourList on 2nd January 2011. It has had 69 comments so far.
