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How one lie led to another – we'll be clearing up the economic mess Clegg left



 

 

Nick Clegg falsified the story, thereby rewriting history. He then got himself into Government, and then ruined the country.

 

It is easy to see the magnitude of Clegg’s failure when you refer back to the Budget debate for 24 March 2010, prior to the 2010 General Election (as recorded in Hansard). The context is some quibbling over the growth figures in David Cameron’s response:

This is in fact what has happened since May 2010. In April 2012, new figures revealed that Britain had plunged into the first double-dip recession since 1975 and is enduring its longest economic slump for a century.  This was in fact the first double dip for 37 years and a nightmare scenario for Chancellor George Osborne, who predicted a rapid return to growth when he embarked on his austerity programme, and Mr Cameron, who had previously declared Britain ‘out of the danger zone’.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

It suited Nick Clegg and Vince Cable to defer as much blame onto Gordon Brown for the recession, rather than to blame global factors.

 

Indeed, Cable, Clegg and Osborne have been wishing for the Eurozone to implode much more than it has, in the same way that they have always hoped for the GDP figures to be ‘revised upwards’. Northern Rock, indeed in 2007, was one of many banks throughout the world to take on risky investments. Many of the assets that these banks had on their balance sheets started to lose their value (like ‘loans gone bad’ or securities derived from mortgages and other loans). The Bank of England became the last resort for the British banks as liquidity froze throughout the global market due to a lack of confidence. The global crash was predicted by Roubini (2010) who said: ‘As homeowners defaulted on their mortgages, the entire global financial system would shudder to a halt as trillions of dollars’ worth of mortgage-backed securities started to unravel’ but the United States and the United Kingdom refused to acknowledge sub-prime mortgages as a threat to the economy’ (N. Roubini and S. Mihm (2010), Crisis Economics: A crash course in the future of finance, Allen Lane, United Kingdom, 2010, p.15). At the time, Nick Clegg criticised the Labour government for not having done anything about getting banks to lend:

However, Clegg is being utterly disingenious about the UK government’s ability to lend money given the overall international climate. Firstly, banks are affected by Basel Capital rules that financiers keep complaining about; subtle reforms on, say, liquidity coverage ratios are also “biting hard”. This overall, it is argued, makes banks far more conservative about lending money and fearful about how they manage their balance sheets. Gillian Tett in the Financial Times in October 2011 gave a very elegant overview of the situation, as it was then. Nick Clegg appears now to have some sort of weird amnesia what had caused the deficit to balloon, but he was very clear about the bail-out at that time.

 

Clearly then, the “deficit” story is the one to base the entire credibility of the raison-d’être of the current Coalition, but the facts clearly state that prior to the global financial crash the deficit being run by Labour was comparable to that run by Norman Lamont and Ken Clarke, as clearly shown here:

Therefore, it is perfectly clear that David Cameron and Nick Clegg have hugely misled the UK on the situation it is currently in, and ‘one lie leads to another’ unfortunately. The Conservatives, Andrew Neil and the Spectator, have been fixated on whether or not Ed Balls knew there was a structural deficit in 2008, whereas English law fundamentally relies on there being a presumption of innocence. Ed Balls is convinced that he, and the Bank of England, did not realise there was a structural deficit in 2008, and indeed the more relevant situation is what to do now. For example, in its twice-yearly fiscal monitor, the IMF said that for countries including the UK: “If growth should fall significantly below current projections, countries with room for manoeuvre should smooth their planned adjustment over 2013 and beyond.” This represents conditional support for Mr Osborne’s deficit reduction plan so long as growth does not disappoint again. Indeed, Andrew Neil and colleagues then curiously perseverate on how much Ed Balls knew then, whilst being completely obvious to any of the arguments about why the GDP remains stagnant now, why the banks fail to lend, and how a failure in securitised mortgages caused a global recession.

IFS in “Briefing Note 79″ indeed remark on the following (in comparing Labour and the Conservatives) in 2008:

“To summarise, both governments presided over a fiscal strengthening in their first three years in office followed by a weakening over the following eight. But we should note that Labour has used more of its borrowing to finance capital investment rather than current spending than the Conservatives did. Under the Conservatives, the structural budget deficit continued to deteriorate until year 14 (1992–93). It remains to be seen when it will reach its trough under Labour.”

This rather begs the question: what was Mervyn King actually worried about in 2008? King in a speech at a dinner hosted by the IoD South West and the CBI at the Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol in 2008 provided the following:

“The low level of national saving is apparent from the current account deficit – our new net borrowing from overseas – which in the third quarter of last year was, relative to GDP, the biggest in the past fifty years and the largest in the G7. It is possible to run a current account deficit for a considerable period. Australia, for example, has done so in every year since 1974. But our own position is becoming more difficult. For some years we have been able to finance current account deficits by borrowing, often through banks, at unusually low interest rates on world capital markets.”

In other words, he appeared to be confident about our “paying off our deficit” due to “low interest rates on world capital markets”. Of course, one lie leads to another, and we’ll now be clearing up the mess that Clegg left in 2015. Clegg will probably defend successfully his seat in 2015, but, as the Liberal Democrat Party implodes, there’ll be nothing left for him to defend, and he will better off in the House of Lords or Europe. Meanwhile, it is quite likely that some sort of austerity plan will be mid-way until 2018, and the disappearance of our AAA coveted credit rating (as warned by Fitch recently) will have been a direct pack of lies we have been fed for the last few years.

Read the Browne Report and executive summary.



Here is the full report.

Here is the executive summary.

England has an internationally respected system of higher education. There are now a record number of people enrolled, studying an increasingly varied range of subjects at a diverse set of higher education institutions (‘HEIs’). Graduates go on to higher paid jobs and add to the nation’s strength in the global knowledge based economy. For a nation of our scale, we possess a disproportionate number of the best performing HEIs in the world, including three of the top ten.

However, our competitive edge is being challenged by advances made elsewhere. Other countries are increasing investment in their HEIs and educating more people to higher standards.

In November 2009, I was asked to lead an independent Panel to review the funding of higher education and make recommendations to ensure that teaching at our HEIs is sustainably financed, that the quality of that teaching is world class and that our HEIs remain accessible to anyone who has the talent to succeed. Over the last year, we have consulted widely and intensively. Our recommendations are based on written and oral evidence drawn from students, teachers, academics, employers and regulators. We have looked at a variety of different systems and at every aspect of implementing them – financial, practical and educational – to ensure that the recommendations we are making are realistic for the long term. I would like to thank all those who have contributed their
knowledge, experience and time to this review. Our findings are contained in our full report and summarised here.

• Great advances have been made in making it possible for more people from all backgrounds to enter an HEI. Currently 45% of people between the ages of 18 and 30 enter an HEI, up from 39% a decade ago. Improvements have been made to ensure that students from disadvantaged schools or backgrounds are given a fair chance to study for a degree. Our recommendations build on this success. Support by way of cash for living (‘maintenance’) will be increased. Those studying for a degree part time will be given proportionate access to funding to those studying full time.
• The quality of teaching and of the awarded degrees is the foundation upon which the reputation and value of our higher education system rests. Our recommendations in this area are based on giving students the ability to make an informed choice of where and what to study. Competition generally raises quality. The interests of students will be protected by minimum levels of quality enforced through regulation.
• England’s HEIs are very varied, in the type of student they attract, the standards of attainment they require for entry, the courses taught and so on. While most of higher education takes place in an HEI called a university this one word does not capture the reality of their diversity. Our recommendations reinforce this diversity. And since one size does not fit all, we would expect the result to be that HEIs will set varied charges for courses.
• A degree is of benefit both to the holder, through higher levels of social contribution and higher lifetime earnings, and to the nation, through higher economic growth rates and the improved health of society. Getting the balance of funding appropriate to reflect these benefits is essential if funding is to be sustainable. Our recommendations place more of the burden of funding on graduates, but they contribute only when they can afford to repay the costs financed. Students do not pay charges, only graduates do; and then only if they are successful. The system of payments is highly progressive. No one earning under £21,000 will pay anything.

We estimate that only the top 40% of earners on average will pay back all the charges paid on their behalf by the Government upfront; and the 20% of lowest earners will pay less than today. For all students, studying for a degree will be a risk free activity. The return to graduates for studying will be on average around 400%.
In formulating our recommendations we had to balance the level of participation, the quality of teaching and the sustainability of funding; changing one component has an impact on the others. What we recommend is a radical departure from the existing way in which HEIs are financed. Rather than the Government providing a block grant for teaching to HEIs, their finance now follows the student who has chosen and been admitted to study. Choice is in the hands of the student. HEIs can charge different and higher fees provided that they can show improvements
in the student experience and demonstrate progress in providing fair access and, of course, students are prepared to entertain such charges.

Our recommendations will lead to a significant change; we do not underestimate the work that will be required. Since this review was commissioned the pressure on public spending has increased significantly. This will add urgency to make funding sustainable. We hope that, as these recommendations are debated, no one loses sight of the powerful role that higher education will play in continuing to build the greatness of this nation.
Respectfully submitted on behalf of the Review Panel, by

Lord Browne of Madingley, FRS, Feng Chairman

12 October 2010

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