Click to listen highlighted text! Powered By GSpeech

Home » Posts tagged 'incompetence'

Tag Archives: incompetence

Osborne is a D-rate tactician, not a master strategist – remember Ireland?



 

On talking about Jagger, “Mick can write!” exclaimed Keith Richards in his autobiography. “It’s unbelievable how prolific he was. Sometimes you’d wonder how to turn the fucking tap off.” This has been written about at great length in the strategy of innovation literature (see for example this seminal article by Malcolm Gladwell in the New Yorker.)

 

That is in fact meant to be hallmark of people who have extraordinary gifts as innovators. True innovators, considered to be at the heart of the recovery that never was in the UK, are prepared to have a few ‘dead ducks’ in the hope that one or two brilliant ideas will survive. Unfortunately, there is no sign of Osborne turning the f*-ing tap off just yet. And great innovating strategist he is not.

 

There has recently been much greater scrutiny amongst the Tory commentators of this accepted teaching that George Osborne is a ‘master strategician’. There is no clear sign of what this strategy is, for example in economics, his ‘day job’. One thing that you can say confidently about Osborne, however, is that he is very good at concealing his cock-ups. Thankfully, Duncan Robinson in “The Staggers” of the New Statesman provides a ‘hard copy’ of how Osborne had famously bragged about the wonders of Ireland as an economy, which Robinson accurately summarised on account of: “Ireland boomed instead on a toxic mix of cheap credit, lax banking regulation and by becoming a borderline tax haven.” George Osborne, who is addicted to bragging, claimed, “Ireland stands as a shining example of the art of the possible in long-term economic policymaking.” It’s virtually impossible to find a copy of this article – so if you have a copy of it please do let me know.

 

Some people on the Right would actually like Osborne to turn the f*ing tap off. He has become a ‘falling star’ in the sky of the Tories, as Fraser Nelson, elegantly put it, with one of the most catastrophically delivered Budgets ever in history (which Fraser describes as “shambolic”). There wasn’t any screw-up too minor or major for this Budget, ranging from pasties, to attacks on philanthropists, raids on pensioners, to name but a few. Osborne succeeded in protecting the high earners, who are not part of the ‘squeezed middle’ however Ed Miliband has finally decided to define this. Osborne should like to be perceived as Corporatilist with a big C – his Big C ethos is best illustrated by Robinson’s view of the Osborne Ultimatum on tax: “We should learn from Ireland’s mistakes. Unfortunately, however, Osborne wants to copy them — at least judging by Osborne’s cuts to universities, the 3.4 per cent reduction in the education budget and his continued obsession with reducing corporation tax — to the point where companies could end up paying less tax than their cleaners.”

 

George Osborne’s economic policy has failed, in a perverse opposite to ‘not mending the roof when the sun was shining’, rather ‘not spending on a new roof when it was bucketing down with rain’. You don’t need to have read Keynes’ 1948 ‘General Theory’ to understand how Osborne produced a textbook plan for producing a recession. This strategy has failed Britain. ‘Master strategists’ decided how to allocate resources effectively and how to build a competitive advantage; for example, spending time on campaigning against Scottish independence, a position supported by Labour, fails on both counts.

 

Osborne is instead the Conservatives’ chief thrower of custard pies. He is throwing so many custard pies, he is hoping one does land on Ed Balls, but this is a dubious desperate tactic; as per an article by James Forsyth, in a frenetic ‘J’accuse’, Osborne remarks, “They were clearly involved.” In this way, he comes the closest of the mentality of an innovative strategist. Steve Richards is correct, as is James Macintyre, to observe leadership qualities in Ed Miliband, in being right to capture the agenda of those who wish to implement ‘responsible capitalism’. Miliband’s speech in 2011 at conference I feel will go down in history as seminal. It has laid the foundations for the judge-led inquiry into the media which has been most instructive in exposing the corrupt phone-hacking. The majority of the country, according to a You Gov poll, want a public-inquiry into the banking industry, feeling that a parliamentary-inquiry would effectively sanction a ‘cover up’. Recent polling has also provided that George Osborne is perceived as one of the worst Chancellors in recent history.

 

The media has thus far been running a media ‘democratic deficit’, with Nick Cohen correctly observing that the agendas of writing the Corporatilist articles in the Right Wing press being at odds with the majority of readers who comment on them. The irony is that corporates don’t want a toxic culture either, with Prof. Porter, Professor of Strategy at Harvard Business School, who makes Osborne’s understanding of strategy look like O-level standard (keeping ahead of the times with Michael Gove), will be the first to tell you (see his seminal article in the Harvard Business Review). Corporates attract greater investment if they are pursuing ‘responsible capitalism’ policies, and this is now a well established fact in business. Furthermore, no business, in an international arena, will wish to invest their resources in a country, which Nick Cohen elegantly refers to as, “a pirate state which you visit, rob or be robbed but never to conduct honest business”

 

The problem is that the custard pie thrown at George Osborne will either miss or it won’t stick. It may be a useful short-term tactic, as argued by Steve Richards today, but it lacks credibility. Ed Balls has vigorously denied it, and Bob Diamond in his evidence yesterday did not play the ‘It’s all Labour’s fault‘ joker. An independent inquiry, led by the judiciary not the legislature essential for legal ‘separation of powers’, is the only way of finding out how a toxic culture can go unnoticed by CEOs of powerful corporates, and why banking is so much for the benefit of its shareholders rather than its customers. We need answers to this – in summary, Ed Miliband is right, and George Osborne is so very wrong.

It makes me angry that George Osborne may be basically lying



This is verbatim the ‘Politics.co.uk’ website, quoting George Osborne:

George Osborne, chancellor, comments on the Moody credit rating agency report:

“It was a reality check for the whole political system that Britain has to deal with its debts, that we can’t waver in the path of dealing with our debts

“This is yet another organisation – in this case a credit ratings agency – warning Britain that if we spend or borrow too much we’re going to lose our credit rating.

“The idea that I’ve abandoned growth is nonsense. Of course I want growth. Of course I want to see unemployment fall. That’s what I spend every day of my life trying to bring about.

“But the truth is this. If you don’t have confidence in a country’s ability to pay its debts — as you have seen with plenty of other European countries — then you get negative growth, rising unemployment and no prospect of recovery.”

 

This is what actually happened if this article is correct (click here). However, it concerns me that the maths of this article is clearly wrong, in that the deficit certainly got worse, but didn’t go anywhere near being doubled.

“Britain’s budget deficit almost doubled in February as taxes fell and spending surged, leaving Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne little room to meet his full-year goal as he prepares to announce the annual budget.

Net borrowing excluding support for banks was 15.2 billion pounds ($24.1 billion), the highest for any February on record, compared with 8.9 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The median of 17 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey was for a shortfall of 8 billion pounds.

Osborne has rejected calls to relax his program of cuts, saying warnings from Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service that Britain could lose its top credit rating reinforce the need to stick to his plan to erase the structural deficit by 2017.”

 

And while I am typing this Cameron is lecturing Europe on trade. And the news there is not good if this article is correct (click here).

UK’s trade deficit in April 2012 was £4.4 billion compared to £3 billion in March due to a slump in both good and services exports.  Cars and chemicals were the industries most affected that led to 8.6% fall in overall exports.

The drop in exports to other European countries dropped by 6.8% in April.  The deficit in trade in goods came at £10.1 billion in April compared to £8.6 billion in March.

At the same time, the services surplus was £5.7bn in April, slightly lower than March’s £5.8bn. A 13% drop in construction output in April due to fall in government projects compounded the bleak economic news.  Analysts are now worried about a third consecutive quarterly contraction in the UK economy.

“With the trade deficit widening in April and construction output again disappointing, the chances of the economy avoiding further contraction in the second quarter are dwindling.” Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist at IHS Global Insight said.  Analysts are especially worried about the drop in exports to countries such as United States, Russia and China as they were unexpected. “

 

No wonder people are gradually not trusting the Conservatives on the economy. People aren’t stupid, I find, if these articles are correct.

George Osborne and the perception of apparent incompetence



 

There’s only one person who is genuinely funnier than David Mitchell. I think that person is Robert Jay QC, lead Counsel for the Leveson Inquiry. Jay can deliver gags with more precision than an exocet missile, for example referring to the bias of Jeremy Hunt as ‘equal and opposite’ to that of Vince Cable.

Jay has been clearly worrying about the issue of the difference between apparent and actual bias in his line of questioning. The jurisprudence of this will indeed be very well known to all law students, including Porter v Magill and Pinochet [No 2]. On the whole, apparent bias, so believes (or so knows) Jay, is harder to prove than actual bias.

So by what standard should we judge George Osborne?  Should Osborne be judged by the standards of a reasonable Minister, or one who has a specialist expertise in economics and finance? Arguably he should not be judged against the latter as he has a II.1 in the Final Honour School of Modern History from University of Oxford.

Victoria Coren, who is better known as Victoria Coren than Mrs David Mitchell, was forced to respond to a question last night on BBC Question Time (available here) as to whether Osborne was incompetent. Coren conceded that this was a difficult question, but explained that – if it came to looking after her pets or pot-plant when she went on holiday – the answer was no.

Labour has a massive problem in the perception of its economic competence. That is despite the overriding consensus of available data proving that Osborne’s economic experiment has wholeheartedly failed. Osborne managed to reverse a growing economy into a failing economy, way before any Eurozone crisis, with falling tax receipts, an overall decrease in full-time employment, greater spend on welfare benefit, and of course negative growth. That is actual incompetence.

It is going to be easier to prove the apparent incompetence of George Osborne. Members of Labour will remember clearly how he used to treat Alistair Darling with contempt, but there is now a never-ending stream of debacles for Osborne to admit. You can choose between the caravan tax, the pasty tax, or the charity tax, in addition to an imploding economy – it doesn’t matter. Whether you throw into the mixer his collusion with Jeremy Hunt in dealing with the BSkyB, as evidenced in Leveson yesterday, quite frankly neither here or there.

I have never bought into the agenda of Osborne as a great strategist. In fact, I think he is also abysmal at economics. He epitomises for me what the wonderful John Maynard Keynes, from King’ s College Cambridge, described as the type of person who does not wish to invest in the future, for various reasons:

(vii) To bequeath a fortune.

(viii) To satisfy pure miserliness, i.e. unreasonable but insistent inhibitions against acts or expenditure as such

“The general theory of employment, interest and money” John Maynard Keynes

It’s no accident that the UK tax system treats capital and income separately. In an ideologically-driven austerity driven agenda ‘to pay off the credit card debt’, the deficit doubled in February 2012, as the nation’s income fell, as a result of its disgraceful treatment of human capital, in what promises to be one of the most spectacular failings of the UK government. The return on such high risk strategy means that Osborne will not be able to pay any electoral dividends in 2015 as he will have no distributable profits by then; in fact, the Coalition deserves to go into receivership.

 

 

[This post does not represent the views of BPP, or of the BPP Legal Awareness Society, a society to promote law in the business strategy.]

Click to listen highlighted text! Powered By GSpeech