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What will a Miliband-Thatcher brand achieve?



 

 

Characterising the leadership of Margaret Thatcher is difficult. The problem is that, despite the perceived ‘successes’ of her tenure of government, her administration is generally accepted to have been very socially divisive. For many, she is the complete opposite of ‘inspirational’, and yet listening to current Conservative MPs talk there is a genuine nostalgia and affection for her period of government.

 

What can Ed Miliband possibly hope to emulate from the leadership style of Margaret Thatcher? Thatcher’s early leadership can definitely be characterised as a ‘crisis’ one, in that full bin liners were not being collected from the streets, there were power blackouts, Britain was going to the IMF to seek a loan, for example. However, the crisis now is one which does not have such visible effects. Miliband can hope to point to falling living standards, or increasing prices due to privatised industries making a profit through collusive pricing, but this is an altogether more subtle argument. A key difference is that people can only blame the business models of the privatised industries, not government directly. Whether this will also be the case as an increasing proportion of NHS gets done by private providers is yet to be seen.

 

It is perhaps more likely that Thatcher’s leadership, in the early stages at least, migth be described as “charismatic”, involving both charisma and vision. Conger and Karungo famously described five behavioural attributes of charismatic leadership. They are: vision and articulation, sensitivity to the environment, sensitivity to member needs, personal risk taking, and performing unconventional behaviour. In a weird way, Thatcher in her period of government can claim to have provided examples of many of these, but it is the period of social destruction at the time of closure of coal mines which will cause doubt on sensitivity to the environment. While ‘Basildon man’ and ‘Ford mondeo’ man might have been looked after, apparently, ‘Easington man’ was clearly not. A ‘One Nation’ philosophy promoting one economy and one society might not be a trite construct for this, after all. The problem is that ‘Basildon man’ has himself moved on; the ‘right to buy’ is the flagship Tory policy epitomising independence, aspiration and choice for the modern Tory, as resumed by Robert Halfon, but there is ultimately a problem if Basildon man is not able to maintain mortgage payments, or there is a general dearth of social housing.

 

In a way, looking at the failures of Thatcher’s leadership style is a bit academic now, but still highly relevant in reminding Miliband that his ‘political class’ cannot be aloof from the voters. It is a testament to the huge ‘brand loyalty’ of the Thatcher brand that there are so many eulogies, and one enduring hagimony from the BBC, to Thatcher. Jay Conger provides a way of understanding how charismatic leadership is to be maintained, and the “Poll Tax” is symptomatic of Thatcher’s failure of these aspects. Conger identifies continual assessment of the environment, and an ability to build trust and commitment not through coercion. Miliband likewise needs to be mindful of his immediate environment too: his stance on Workfare disappointed many members of Labour, causing even 41 of his own MPs to rebel against the recent vote, and upset many disabled citizens who are members of Labour. What happens when charismatic leadership goes wrong can be identified clearly in the latter years of the Thatcher administration. These include relatively unchallenged leadership, a tendency to gather “yes men”, and a tendency to narcissism and losing touch with reality. I still remember now (and I am nearly 39), the classic, “We have become a grandmother” and that awful Mansion House spectacle when Mrs Thatcher proclaimed that ‘the batting had been tough of late’ whilst maintaining a quasi-regal ambience.

 

I personally disagree with the notion that elections are won from the ‘centre ground’, particularly because I conceptually do not find the classification of ‘left’ and ‘right’ helpful (especially if you, like me, wish to embrace “One Nation Labour” with genuine goodwill). To use the market analogy, I think it’s like making an offering which looks and functions like an iPod, but which has some of the features missing; you might as well buy the real thing. A more sensible strategy for a competitor to the incumbent is to offer something really disruptive; in other words, something which offers some of the good qualities of the current market leaders, but which adds useful value. Ironically, enough time has passed since the airbrushing of socialism from the mainstream UK political system occurred with the advent of New Labour for Ed Miliband to give this another go. You can argue until the cows come home, and many mere mortals who are management theorists have given it a go, about whether charismatic leadership needs both charisma and vision. Despite Denis Healey’s famous doubts about whether Ed Miliband has charisma, it seems that Fraser Nelson has latterly judged Ed Miliband to be quite personable. Certainly, Ed Miliband to come close to becoming a charismatic leader himself needs to have an extremely clear vision. He may have to “think the unthinkable”, and make an unrealistic promises such as a NHS which is ‘comprehensive, and free-at-the-point-of-use’ (still miraculously, though, in the current NHS constitution). However, to borrow George Osborne’s phrase, “there is a debate to be had”, about whether the deregulation of markets under the Conservatives and New Labour did lead to a climate which encouraged the global financial crash to spread to the London markets. There is also a debate to be had about the ‘market failures’ of privatised industries. Sure, nobody is wishing ‘Thomas Cook’ to become a state-owned travel agent, or you to wait a month to have a phone line fitted by the State. But this is to present outdated, prejudiced, ‘Aunt Sally’ arguments. There is a debate to be had instead about whether we wish certain national services, like utilities or railways, to be fragmented, at relatively high prices, and where there is clearly a substantial benefit to shareholders and corporate directors but little benefit to consumers. Nobody wants to see the Unions ‘holding the country to ransom’, but it is a triumphant failure of Tony Blair and New Labour that this demonising malicious memes have been allowed to remain alive almost forty years on. Nearly all people, instead, firmly believe in the idea of democratic representation, and this has now become vital in abuse of the workforce by certain employers. We hear stories all-the-time of powerful corporates using ‘zero hour contracts’, and it is this Government which has seen the dilution of employment rights of workers and employees (reduced eligibility for unfair dismissal claims, and a lower quantum of award.) And, finally, there is a debate to be had about what exactly underlies the ‘maximum number of people in employment’ claim; is it for example an increased number of part-time, flexible workers who are under-employed, or is it an artefact of migrant workers from Eastern Europe who are doing temporary jobs in the UK?

 

Ed Miliband has often many times remarked about his thoughts have been ‘shaped’ by Margaret Thatcher, despite the fact he is very clear he disagreed with many of the views of Thatcher. We need, however, a frank discussion of where Britain goes from here. Frankly, a pig with a rosette could have won certain Labour seats in Scotland, but those days are over. Labour’s membership started to go into decline from around 2002/3, long predating the fall in membership after the Iraqi war. The ‘paying of respects’ to the late Baroness Thatcher has allowed some Tory ideology to go unchallenged, such as the importance of the Unions in society, or the failure of privatised industries. However, what Ed Miliband can hope to emulate is a precise articulation of a vision. Miliband has to prove that he is the right person for the right times (2014/5), like Blair, Thatcher and Cameron/Clegg might have been. If Labour is to be given the honour of a mandate in 2015, it needs to have an extremely clear idea of what it hopes to achieve, and for whom.

What does Ed Miliband really think?



Steve Richards, political columnist for the Independent, recently produced a fascinating portrayal of Ed Miliband. If you missed the programme, you can listen to it here on the BBC website.

I have always felt that David Cameron is in office, but not in power. He failed to win the General Election, despite widespread media backing and a deeply unpopular final Labour administration. More significantly, I feel that David Cameron is a manager, and not a leader; and a very poor one at that. This production, “What does Ed Miliband think?”, is in my opinion a very timely radio documentary by Steve Richards, as Ed Miliband takes stock of his first two years as leader of the Opposition and leader of the UK Labour Party. In recruitment, the philosophy is that you choose an employee based on his or her known interests and competences, as a ‘predictor’ of future success in that job.

Steve Richards early on cites the ‘responsible capitalism’ of the Labour Conference of 2011. I remember that speech, but I didn’t take away the prominent soundbite of ‘predator capitalism’. I was midway through a MBA at the time, and the territory of ‘responsible capitalism’ had already been known to me. The concept of a responsible corporate citizen is a very important one here in the UK, and in the US, and has a formidable academic history. I think part of the reason it was so badly received by commentators was that some phrases in the speech might have been imprecise, but also because the background to this theme had already been poorly known. I think it was brave of Ed Miliband to bring up the big argument of why it is insufficient simply for company directors to maximise shareholder dividend, ignoring the sentiments of the general public (including even consumers).

Ed Miliband is quizzed bluntly by Steve Richards about rail franchising. The complaint about the lack of policy detail is appropriately confronted by Richards, and is one that I know vexes many other members of Labour. There is a detailed policy review underway, but areas where Miliband wishes to appear to distance himself from New Labour are clearly identified. This in marketing terms is about producing a ‘unique selling proposition’, with the majority of Labour geeks (rightly) balk at. Here, it is perhaps relevant what Ed Miliband is not, rather than what he is. What he isn’t is a ‘PR man’, a criticism which Ed Miliband indeed threw at David Cameron last week in Prime Minister’s Questions. Ed Miliband is taking his own to produce a coherent political philosophy, whilst clear to disengage himself from the New Labour ‘brand’. This, I suspect, will be a popular move, even it has been previously described as bordering on populist. When I first met Ed Miliband at his final hustings at Haverstock Hill, I remember asking himself about inequality. He was genuinely very disappointed about Labour’s record on inequality, and has amused to hear my observation that neither the word ‘inequality’ nor ‘poverty’ featured in the index of Tony Blair’s “The Journey”.

The personal friendship with Lord Wood is an interesting one, as the portrayal previously had been of a rather ‘geeky loner’ who had been dwarfed by the academic shadow of his father, Ralph. Indeed, Ed Miliband clearly has elegantly articulated reservations about globalisation and institution themes of Blue Labour. However, it is the argument which Richards then assumes is one which I find intriguing. Miliband is compared to Thatcher (during the opposition years), and Miliband talks about a parallel of how he wishes to ‘rise to the challenge’. Again, I feel that this is where a knowledge of the management and leadership literature really helps. What Miliband is describing is ‘charismatic leadership’, of a figure which the public picks out as a candidate to steer them through a time of political, social, and economic turmoil. Charles Moore’s criticism that there is no goal, such as attacking the power of the trade unions or getting inflation down, is perhaps valid. These are very early days though. Ed Miliband’s “get out of jail” card has recently, ‘we cannot predict what the economy will be like in three years time”, which is indeed true when you consider that we may shortly be entering a “triple dip”. It could be that Ed Miliband does find an easily identifiable issue, such as boosting the constructive industry to provide new housing, or breaking up oligopolies such as banks or utilities such that greater value is returned to the consumer as well as the shareholder.

The lack of policy details, thus far, is one that continues to trouble Labour activists. The ‘opaque’ process, it is described, means that there could be “unexploded bombs”, which might explode accidentally near the time of the General Election. I agree there is a clear direction of travel, in that Ed Miliband wishes to avoid a strangehold of the markets; before the next election, there does need to have a clear narrative of public sector services. However, the £2bn reorganisation of the NHS is currently ‘work in process’, and therefore it is difficult to pre-empt how best to respond, when not all of the key statutory instruments, such as the Regulations for section 75 Health and Social Care Act, have not been “laid” before parliament. Both Ed Miliband and Andy Burnham have provided that they cannot possibly do another “top-down reorganisation”, but will instead ask existing structures to do different things, such as less competition and more collaboration. I think this is a practical approach to be admired. I also feel that freedom to produce policy possibilities in private is an excellent way to encourage creativity. In innovation management, it is a well known finding that many duds are produced before a golden egg is delivered; at this time, Ed Miliband is right to encourage innovation and creativity in policy making.

Last year’s Conference speech, 2012, was very well received, but Philip Collins and Neil O’Brien highlight that some issues were simply unaddressed, for example the deficit. In a sense the moment has ‘passed’ in that the public seem to have made their opinion up that the Conservatives are more trustworthy on the economy, despite the fact that Labour ran a deficit comparable to Ken Clarke and Norman Lamont prior to the global financial crisis. Instead of banging its head against a wall repeatedly, Labour may be better off on concentrating on a vision that the country can believe in, and other details will fall into place. Steve Richards’ discussion deliberately did not discuss other factors affecting the ‘mood music’, such as Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats, or UKIP, and it is possible that other big topics, such as the Eurozone, could affect Ed Miliband’s path of travel.

In summary, Steve Richards’ latest radio documentary is an interesting, even very entertaining, discussion of the current problems, opportunities and challenges facing Ed Miliband at the moment. I don’t have a political background by education whatsoever, but certainly a management training in marketing, innovation and leadership does make sense of various issues which Ed Miliband has to tackle. In as much as they are “facts”, the “facts” are currently that no party has ever been successful at increasing its share of the vote after winning an election, and one-term oppositions are vanishingly rare. However, how the current Coalition came to power is indeed unusual, as is how Ed Miliband became Leader of the Labour Party ‘against the odds’. Ed Miliband’s progress in many ways thus far has been unusual, and I suspect, as before, many things will simply fall into place for him. I really enjoyed this documentary.

Why Nick Clegg's implementation of the NHS reforms worked (in his own party)



 

To give Nick Clegg credit, his implementation of the support for the NHS Bill in his own party succeeded. Aside from the numerous articles written elsewhere about the substantive issues of the Bill now as amended, I should like to explain why selling the Bill to his own party worked. I will also briefly discuss the consequences.

Nick Clegg is an odd type of leader – fundamentally he is charismatic (his popularity figures always remain surprisingly high), and he is indeed transformative (in that he has achieved some noteworthy successes such as ‘the Pupil Premium’). He has been able to ‘sell’ some very difficult policies to the Liberal Democrat Party, but an unfortunate characteristic is that people tend to give him no credit and all the blame (the opposite pattern to Steve Jobs, whose failure over Apple TV is rarely remembered.)

‘Strategic change’ is a key issue studied in great detail in many MBAs, the one at BPP Business School included. Books have been written about complex strategic change, and there is no doubt that the implementation of the actual NHS reforms (already started) will result in failure. This is primarily because it has failed to take into account the current structures and culture of the NHS, including the views of the key personnel within it (including the majority of doctors and nurses).

However, Nick Clegg got the support of a key follower, in this case, Baroness Shirley Williams. She is a good choice as she is a former member of Labour, and the assumption is that she would be fiercely defensive of the NHS as an organ of the welfare state. Nick Clegg was therefore very shrewd to get her support, and, with the help of trying to communicate effectively why he felt the amendments were sufficient, was able to get support from his party members. The support of the ‘lead follower’ is an important factor in follower support, and, is for example very important if you are seeking adoption of an innovative problem or service.

Unfortunately, the issue now is what Nick Clegg will have achieved by all this. Left-wing voters are likely to desert the Liberal Democrat Party in droves, meaning that Lab-Lib marginals will almost certainly go Labour. The thorny issue is what happens in Tory-Lib margins; it is very likely that the Tories will win these seats, particularly if Liberal Democrats lose some of their core support. In Tory-Lab marginals, the issue is equally complex, but this could be impacted by a number of factors, including the perceived performance of the economy in 2015; currently it is felt that the deficit will not be paid off until 2017/8 at the earliest because of the very poor level of growth in the UK economy. Conversely, the US economy is now doing very well, as a result of the fact it embraced the importance of fiscal stimulus, and did not reject textbook Keynesian economic theory. Whichever way you look it, it is still possible that the Tories might win with an enhanced majority. However, also, whichever way you look at, while Nick Clegg will have finished a term as Deputy PM by 7 May 2015, the Liberal Democrats are likely to be obliterated electorally in 2015. This presumably does not matter much to Nick Clegg, as his proposals for a reformed House of Lords are likely to fail too.

 

 

 

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