This is a totally independent post and does not represent the views of the Socialist Health Association.
If ‘expectation management’ were recognised in awards, the Liberal Democrats would get the Nobel Prize.
Martin Rathfelder, Director of the Socialist Health Association, said recently, “By-elections are funny things”. When Labour loses the Eastleigh by-election, the Labour line, as surely as night follows day, will be that nobody expected Labour to win this Hampshire seat which is safe territory for the Tories and Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives can never be underestimated for making a fight back, as anyone who remembers the 1992 general election will testify. And for whatever the faults of Chris Huhne and David Laws, many voters in that part of the country are very loyal to them and the Liberal Democrats.
When Labour comes third in the by-election, it will be seen as not a big loss, as this was indeed a seat which was 285th on their “target list”. Whilst there are other crucial issues of critical importance to the country, such as the imminent triple-dip, a win by the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats will be seen by some as an endorsement of the Coalition, albeit in a somewhat incredulous way. The problem is that, for Labour discussing how the ‘triple-dip’ is as a direct result of the economic policies of the Government (as advanced by Ed Balls), the public generally mistrust all parties on the economy. Labour does have a ‘unique selling proposition’ in being the Party which implemented the NHS, albeit Beveridge, Master of University College Oxford, was a Liberal. Labour are safely ahead, though the lead possibly could be narrowing, clear of the Conservatives, who wish to be seen as making the NHS “fit-for-purpose”. Some mistrust the agenda of the Conservatives, feeling that it is more driven by 2020health and the Adam Smith Institute, in gearing the NHS for a voluntary private insurance system in due course.
Labour can of course decide to go on the offensive regarding the NHS, but whether it does so or not is inevitably shaped by the aftermath of the Francis Report, with its widespread acknowledgement of failure at the very top indirectly causing 400-1200 deaths in an unsafe culture driven by ‘efficiency’ which seemed not to be a localised phenomenon. This could be an opportunity for all those interested, including Labour, to have a frank debate about the future of the NHS. The policy review, led by Jon Cruddas, under the portmanteau of ‘New Labour’ is supposed to be formulated upon a tripos of society, economy, political process.
One of the things I have never understood about Ed Miliband is his willingness to be so inclusive, for example in his participation in “Compass”, despite the significant mistrust of the Liberal Democrat Party amongst grassroots Labour activists. If Labour and Andy Burnham effectively ignore the presence of the NHS Action Party, this I feel is a ‘silent nod’ to a hope that we don’t use Eastleigh to discuss the “progress” of the National Health Service, at a time when some want to privatise it after outsourcing it.
If Labour come third anyway, that will surely be a big tragedy?
Please feel free to contact me on @legalaware if you wish to have a constructive debate about any of the issues therein. Many thanks.
