I’m a grassroots Labour member and supporter. I asked all my Facebook friends and Twitter followers to take part in my survey if they were either a Labour member or supporter. There were 70 who replied, and I would say that there are many supporters who overall are very well-informed about affairs generally within Labour generally.
I asked a simple question, ‘Which member of the Shadow Cabinet do you like the most?’ This is in keeping with the question previously asked in Labour List, and indeed the results are very comparable. The results were (for the significant answers): Ed Balls (50%), Andy Burnham (48.6%), Yvette Cooper (44.3%), Tom Watson (31.4%), Chuka Umunna (25.7%). Interestingly, the other members did not figure noticeably, apart from Harriet Harman, Jim Murphy, and Rachel Reeves. Ed and Andy have always been a popular member of the Shadow Team, and the results are surprisingly similar to that of Labour List this year with a much larger sample. However, the possibility exists that this reflects the importance that Labour voters put on the economy and the NHS.
In relation to this, survey respondents were asked to identify any issues which would most affect the outcome of the 2015 general election: the top answers were: economy (80.9%), NHS (69.1%), welfare (47.1%), and work and pensions (63.2%). That the economy and the NHS would figure so highly was no surprise to me, but I was staggered that welfare had figured so highly. This was in the week that Trevor Kavanagh, in the Sun, in concluding his list of priorities, provided that, “George Osborne needs an extra £10 billion in welfare cuts. Welfare supremo Iain Duncan Smith insists he’s already done enough. Who is right? The answer lies with today’s story that almost a million Brits have been “off sick” for more than TEN YEARS. Most are idle scroungers, blaming booze, bad backs and obesity. Scrapping their handouts would save that £10billion at a stroke.” However, this has also been a week when Sonia Poulton (widely supported by many in the third sector), who has been celebrated for her hard-hitting articles in the Daily Mail for the plight of disabled citizens, organised a open letter to Ed Miliband to task him to prioritise this issue, following the Panorama and Dispatches documentaries exposing allegations of issues about benefit payments for the ill and sick.
A majority thought that the UK would still be in recession at the time of the 2015 general election (79.7%), in keeping with the reports from leading UK economists that, due to lack of investment in the last two years by the Coalition government, the UK will now not be expected to emerge out of recession until 2018/9. This provides a significant problem potentially for Labour, as this survey finding is coupled with the observation that the vast majority (88.6%) should not wish the government at the time to continue with a programme of spending cuts. This, whilst being consistent with the view of the Unions, would not be consistent with the view of Ed Balls, the Shadow Chancellor. Notably, the Fabian Society in 2010 had argued that, in their ‘NextLeft’ meeting in Manchester at the time of Labour conference of 2010, even if the deficit reduction programme worked as planned, the social effects of the plan would be enormous and longlasting. Only 52.2% of my respondents thought that Labour’s economic policy was ‘correct’ despite substantial support for Ed Balls. Ed Balls, according to YouGov, now garners better personal ratings than George Osborne, but both men are parties are not trusted by the majority of the public in running the economy.
On the general issue of whether Labour should repeal major planks of Conservative/Liberal Democrat legislation, the overwhelming consensus was that Labour should: on the NHS (88.2%), on legal aid reforms (85.5%), and on welfare reforms (81.2%). The major problem with this question, as pointed about @SocialistHealth, is that this does not solve what we should do in place of this legislation. Also, as pointed out by @andyjameshicks voters might have a tendency to wish to repeal these items of legislation, without being fully aware of the proposals of these items of legislation.
And finally, 63.8% thought that Ed Miliband is “doing a good job as leader”. Ed has enjoyed substantial progress nationally in the handling of issues, ranging from the banking industry to phone hacking. It is noteworthy that the poll rating is as high as this, given that half of the respondents do not agree with the economic policy, but see the economy as important, and wish the spending cuts to be discontinued if the country is still in recession in 2015. More sophisticated polling will have to get to the bottom of these issues.
