Like pornography, you’ll recognise Labour when you see it. That is of course the hope though Labour went on a distinct trajectory from 1997-2010, under Brown and Blair. In the current landscape, Nick Clegg has become as palatable to some voters as Tony Blair had become (after he left), and Liberal Democrat councillors and politicians will apparently attempt to attack the Conservatives as much as they have criticised Labour in the past.
Labour is currently undergoing a complicated policy review, but Ed Miliband in his Christmas message has indicated that concrete policy steps will be revealed in 2013. The running of the economy seems forefront in Labour’s mind, having virtually given up officially on explaining on how such a huge deficit was run up as an emergency measure in the global financial crash of 2009. It is now saddled not only with this deficit, but a mistrust from voters that Labour can be trusted again with the public finances.
It is easy to underestimate how toxic the Labour brand has become in running the economy, ranging from concerns about Gordon Brown selling off gold for cheap, to the inheritance of the PFI initiative. It of course is a perception that subsequent contracts with PFI under Osborne, nor indeed his actions over the selling of gold, are barely noticed. Overall, the impression is that Labour spends money ‘while the sun is shining’, instead of ‘mending the roof’.
Mistakes have been made from May 2010, and Labour is now saddled with spending commitments for the next few years. This makes public spending difficult, with Andy Burnham having previously stated that it would be ludicrous to maintain NHS spending at current levels. This is of massive frustration to the Unions. This is also of massive frustration to people in genuine need of benefits, because they are long-term unemployed through no fault of their own, or they are disabled, also through no fault of their own, requiring mobility and/or living allowances. We now have a maximum number of employment with very poor employment rights, as the “flexible economy” takes over. It is not a concidence that deunionised work forces tend to have lower wages and weaker employment rights.
And yet the rise of salaries of some CEOs has rocketed, with some bankers reported to have had an income of £1 m this year. This mismatch between performance and income will be of concern to those who believe that it is a lie that “we are in this together”. It is argued that reinstating the 50p band, only introduced by Labour right at the end of its 13 years of government, would lead to unintended consequences, like highly paid CEOs and their companies leaving the UK.
Whatever policy instruments Ed Miliband comes up with, it is clear ‘we cannot go on like this’. Disabled people need protecting, the privatisation of the NHS is resented by many, and the Conservatives themselves have screwed up the economy. In a sense, Labour has an open goal, but the acid test then becomes: what happens if you’re in a Tory/Lib Dem marginal? Voting for the LibDems as an anti-Tory vote could accidentally produce another Tory/Lib Dem coalition. If Lib Dems simply stay away and Labour has no presence, there could also be another way of arriving at a Tory/Lib Dem coalition. Labour needs to have a clear message about what it wishes the privilege of being in government to do.
The Blair Years, despite the benefit of three election victories for Tony Blair, has led to an outcome of Labour being thrust again into the wilderness. At the beginning of next year, the Mid Staffs Inquiry will report on what went so tragically wrong in the NHS culture of a NHS Foundation Trust. Labour’s only hope is that, like pornography, they recognise it when they see it. They see a party which is not ‘working up’ the private sector so that it can be sold to private equity companies, but a party which encourages employment as a form of security for workers and employees. They wish to see a party that will look after your health from cradle to cradle, in other words not see a ever-decreasing list of procedures which are not ‘free-at-access’. Criticisms of Ed Miliband are overstated, when one considers that this is clearly the most incompetent performance by a Prime Minister ever, ranging from pasty tax to utilities debacles. And, to give him, credit Miliband has led the debates about reform of the banking industry, and press regulation.
The fundamental problem is that one-term oppositions are very rare, but also vanishingly rare are Prime Ministers who consolidate their support as time progresses. Cameron is coming from a position of weakness, having failed to win the election despite having the backing of virtually everyone, including the BBC and Murdoch press. It is only a matter of time before Labour is re-elected, and it certainly has much work to do on various issues, such as what it hopes for Scotland, or what precisely it wants to ‘cut’ in the economy. For all the day-to-day operational criticisms, such as Andrew Mitchell or Leveson, it is clear that Labour are not there yet, but it is going to take a lot to undo the legacy of the Blair years. Labour should remember its roots, and otherwise it is finished.
